Florida could be target of tropical system next week, but forecast models vary on intensity

Stream FOX 35 News

ORLANDO, Fla. - Next week presents a complex forecast, with the potential for tropical development as a wave is expected to emerge from the Western Caribbean Sea. However, what will happen once this system enters the Gulf of Mexico remains unclear.

"Multiple lobes of energy will collide in the Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche from Friday night into Saturday. How they interact and/or collide will dictate what happens," FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren explained. The Bay of Campeche is known for spinning up tropical systems that are more difficult to detect in long-range models.

In scenario 1, some guidance suggests this collision of energy could result in a tropical depression or even a series of such systems. Alternatively, it may produce a potent, but non-tropical low, which would then drift northeast toward Florida by early to mid-next week.

In scenario 2, the guidance indicates that the energy could consolidate into a new low with the potential to strengthen as it crosses the Gulf’s warm waters, where wind shear remains relatively light.

"In either scenario, the setup will bring a lot of tropical moisture into Florida as a cold front drops down into the atmosphere aloft," Bergren added. "So even if we don’t see a named storm or something more significant form, heavy rain, storms, and other impacts are likely over Florida and possibly Georgia."

As for the chances of tropical development, Bergren advises not to be overly concerned but warns against dismissing the potential entirely. "I think there’s an element of surprise in this setup, and the models aren’t quite grasping it well," he said. Even in the stronger scenario where a system like ‘Milton’ forms, he doesn’t expect it to become an intense Category 4 storm like Helene.

Regardless, this would likely be a slow-moving system, which could prolong the impact. Notably, both German and Canadian models have consistently shown the potential for Tropical Storm Milton.