Caribbean system likely to develop over the next couple of days, NHC says

Caribbean tropical system could form next week

Forecasters are tracking the potential for a tropical system to develop in the Caribbean Sea next week.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Forecasters are closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next week.

These odds are expected to rise, with the possibility of a tropical system forming by the end of this week or into the weekend. If the system forms, it will be named "Patty."

There are two potential paths for the developing system:

SCENARIO 1: A weaker storm that will be steered out into the Atlantic, staying off the shore of the east coast. Climatologically, this is more of a typical pattern we'd see, especially this time of year.

SCENARIO 2: A slightly stronger storm in the Gulf of Mexico. This is more unlikely of the two scenarios, but it is still a trend we'll be monitoring very closely.

Despite some models backing off development, experts believe conditions remain favorable for the formation of a named storm in the central Caribbean by this weekend or early next week. The strength and path of the system will be crucial in determining its potential impact.

While Florida faces no immediate threat, travelers to the Caribbean are advised to monitor the forecast closely as the system develops.

There are currently no spaghetti models showing the potential paths because the system does not exist yet.

In Florida's history, there have only been three land-falling hurricanes in the month of November, with the last one being Hurricane Nicole in 2022.