Caribbean Sea could see tropical depression form this week: National Hurricane Center

Tropical development possible this week in Caribbean

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of potential tropical development in the Caribbean Sea. On Saturday, the National Hurricane Center designated an area of interest in the southwestern Caribbean Sea with a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. On Sunday, the NHC increased those chances to 40%.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of potential tropical development in the Caribbean Sea.

On Saturday, the National Hurricane Center designated an area of interest in the southwestern Caribbean Sea with a 20% chance of development over the next seven days. On Sunday, the NHC increased those chances to 40%.

The NHC said a low pressure system is likely to develop over the Caribbean Sea this week and a tropical depression could form later this week or next weekend, possibly before Halloween.

If a tropical storm or hurricane develops, the next name on the list is Patty.

Impact to Florida? No

Nope, not at this point, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team.

Due to a lower jet stream in the fall, it often pushes these systems south of Florida and out toward the Atlantic Ocean.

There are three possible scenarios should this system ultimately develop:

Scenario 1 - a strong ridge of high pressure sets up over the southeast and steers any tropical development to the west following the path of Tropical Storm Nadine
Scenario 2 - Jet stream dips down but does not push out to the Atlantic, causing storms to steer closer to the east coast with dominant high pressure over the central Atlantic.
Scenario 3 - Jet stream dips down and does push off the east coast, allowing any tropical development to follow along the jet stream and storms will push out towards the central Atlantic.

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What's fueling the potential for tropical development?

According to the FOX 35 Storm Team, low wind shear and warmer ocean temperatures act as fuel for the potential of tropical storms or hurricanes to develop.

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, which means there is still a month left in the 2024 season.

Do hurricanes form in November? Rare, but possible

In short: Yes, it is possible for hurricanes to form in November – and they have – but the focus area moves away from the Gulf of Mexico and primarily rests in the Caribbean Sea.

However, hurricanes have formed and have made landfall in Florida. In fact, four hurricanes have made landfall in Florida since records were kept, according to the NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks widget.

Those were: