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National Hurricane Center says disturbance in Atlantic could become tropical depression later this week

By and
Updated  September 23, 2024 10:59am EDT
Weather Forecast
FOX 35 Orlando

Odds increase to 80% for Caribbean system to develop: NHC

The odds of a tropical system developing over the next 48 hours in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased to a high – 80% – chance, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean that has a high chance for development over the next seven days and is forecast to become a tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Monday morning.

The disturbance is located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands and is currently producing unorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Weather conditions appear favorable for gradual development of the system, and a tropical depression is likely to form toward the middle to latter part of this week as it moves west to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, according to the NHC. 

The system has a 70% chance of developing over the next seven days and a 20% chance over the next 48 hours, according to the NHC's 8 a.m. tropical weather outlook.

Invest 97L to develop as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico

All eyes are on Invest 97L, a tropical system in the Caribbean that is forecast to become a tropical depression or storm in the next day or two as it moves northward over the Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Once the disturbance moves over the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said additional development is possible. This system is expected to bring heavy rain to areas of Central America during the next several days, even if it doesn't develop further. 

Later this week, the same system is forecast to move northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and those along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also keep an eye on the system.

Invest 97L will likely develop into a tropical depression and "rapidly intensify" to a hurricane – with some models showing a major hurricane (Cat. 3 or higher), according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner.

"It's overwhelmingly likely we'll see a hurricane this week, and it is likely to make landfall on Thursday," Garner said, leaving four days – including Monday – for preparations, specifically along the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Gulf Coast.

Should a storm or hurricane form, it would be called Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. 

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