Tropical depression likely in Gulf of Mexico next week: National Hurricane Center

Tropical depression likely to form in Gulf of Mexico, NHC says

A tropical depression is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico this week, according to the National Hurricane Center, and conditions appear favorable for the development of a tropical storm or hurricane. Where exactly it will go, and if it will impact Florida, remain unclear at this point. Regardless, the system is expected to bring heavy rains to parts of Central America.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Update (9/22): The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development of a tropical disturbance forming in the Caribbean Sea to 80%. A tropical depression is likely to form in the next few days, and is forecast to head into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could become the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Here is our latest forecast.

Previous story (no longer being updated)

A tropical disturbance is likely to form in the Caribbean Sea over the next few days and become a tropical depression as it nears the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

From there, it is expected to develop further and could eventually become the next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Helene.

In its latest advisory, the NHC said the potential disturbance had a high chance – 70% – of further development over the next seven days. That's up from 60% earlier on Saturday.

Regardless of when it forms, it is expected to bring heavy rain to Central America. It is still too early to tell what impact it will have on the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Florida.

"Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a very broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days," the NHC said.

Image 1 of 6

▼

It is one of three disturbances being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. More details on that below.

Is the potential tropical disturbance headed toward Florida?

It's still too early to know exactly where this potential system will go – and if it will ultimately impact Florida. As of right now, it is not yet a tropical depression, tropical storm, or even a hurricane.

However, regardless of where and when it develops, rain is likely for parts of Florida. How much? Unclear at this moment. It is a system that the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team are monitoring.

The GFS and EURO models appear to be aligning more than previously, predicting a northeastern track should this system make it into the Gulf of Mexico, towards Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida's Big Bend region.

As with all models, the data and projections could change hour by hour.