Tropical Storm Ernesto could form next week as forecasters increase chance of development for Atlantic system

Eyes on possible tropical threat forming next week

Tropical Storm Debby has concluded its impact on the U.S., causing significant flooding in the Northeast. Attention now shifts to a potential new tropical threat, likely to be named "Ernesto." A tropical wave is expected to move toward the Antilles by Monday, with a tropical depression probable by Monday night or Tuesday.

LAKE MARY, Fla. - Forecasters are shifting attention to a potential tropical threat in the Atlantic Ocean, likely named "Ernesto." This tropical wave is expected to move toward the Antilles by Monday and now has a 70% chance of developing into an organized system.

The tropical wave is located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC said it's currently producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

This tropical wave is expected to move toward the Antilles by Monday. A tropical depression is probable by Monday night or Tuesday, and this system could develop into a tropical storm by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Forecasters are closely monitoring the system’s track, which will be influenced by two large high-pressure areas over North America. One model suggests a weaker trough over New England, which could steer Ernesto away from the coast. Another model, however, indicates a stronger trough into the Carolinas, which could pull Ernesto closer to the U.S. coast, making landfall in the Carolinas or New England possible.

While a direct landfall in Florida is considered unlikely due to the current trough setup, the eastern U.S. should remain vigilant. Regardless of the system's eventual path, giant surf and high rip current risks are expected along the eastern seaboard next weekend.

Next week, Puerto Rico may experience tropical storm conditions as the system moves northwestward into the Southwest Atlantic. Favorable conditions, including very light wind shear and warm ocean waters, could lead to rapid strengthening, with a hurricane potentially forming later in the week.