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Swing state poll: Final New York Times/Siena results before election

By Megan Ziegler
Published  November 4, 2024 12:44pm EST
2024 Election
Fox TV Stations

Poll shows Harris & Trump virtually split by gender

We are one day out from Election Day and a poll shows Harris & Trump virtually split by gender. Political analyst, Anthony Russo. joins LiveNOW form FOX to discuss the split, as the race to the White House tightens.

The Brief

    • Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, with polls opening and closing at varying times depending on state law. Check your state’s website before heading out to vote. 
    • The final set of polls from New York Times/Siena found the candidates are still essentially tied, battling it down to the final hour. 
    • The poll showed Harris had made gains in North Carolina and Georgia, while Trump made gains in Pennsylvania and maintained his lead in Arizona.

Americans are giving their final view of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump with Election Day just hours away. 

The final set of polls released Sunday from The New York Times and Siena College found the candidates still essentially tied, battling it down to the final hour. 

Overall, 48% of responders said they’d vote for Harris if the election was held today, to 47% saying their vote would be for Trump. 

RELATED: What are the swing states? Who's winning? Your election questions, answered

Swing state polling

FILE-Side-by-side photo of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. (FOX Newsedge)

Looking towards the swing states, The New York Times said the poll showed Harris making gains in North Carolina and Georgia, while Trump made gains in Pennsylvania and maintained his lead in Arizona.

Polling was essentially tied between the two in three of the swing states: Georgia (Harris, 48%, Trump 47%), Michigan (both at 47%) and Pennsylvania (both at 48%). 

Trump was leading in Arizona by four points, 49% to Harris’ 45%. 

Harris had a two-point lead in both North Carolina and Wisconsin, (48% to 46%, and 49% to 47%, respectively), and a three-point lead in Nevada (49% - 46%). 

Results in all seven states are within the margin of sampling error, meaning neither candidate has a definitive lead in any of them.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the White House, and these swing states have a collective 93 votes that will ultimately decide who wins.

Find more results for swing state polling here. 

More poll results

The Source: Information for this story was provided by The New York Times. The NYT/Siena College poll was conducted among 7,879 likely voters in the 2024 battleground states from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2, 2024. This story was reported from Detroit. 

2024 ElectionKamala HarrisDonald J. TrumpPolitics