Colorado State University says next 2 weeks will be below average for tropical development
ORLANDO, Fla. - For the next two weeks, researchers at Colorado State University expect a 60% likelihood of below-average tropical activity, 30% of average activity, and 10% of above-normal activity.
"This is due to multiple hostile conditions in the atmosphere limiting tropical genesis," explained FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Too much dry air in the eastern Atlantic, too much sinking air over the basin broadly, and too warm of air high up in the atmosphere limiting the ability for deep thunderstorms to even form over the ocean to start the process of a tropical system."
In early August, CSU slightly lowered the forecast for the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, but their outlook still called for a much busier-than-average season.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at CSU, and his team are still calling for 23 named storms, 12 of which could reach hurricane strength and six that could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Those figures include the five named storms that have already formed this hurricane season.
"It's going to be very interesting if we reach those points, but there is plenty of time to go," said Bergren. "Historically, about 60-65% of all activity remains after Sept. 4th in any given season, regardless of La Niña, El Niño or any other factor."
Forecasters said it is important not to let our guard down just because the season has been relatively quiet.