Tropical depression or storm could form near Florida as early as weekend; path still uncertain: NHC
As the 2024 hurricane season approaches its peak months, a large tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles could threaten Florida.
While the system was still a broad area of disorganized rain and thunderstorms Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said it has a 60% chance of becoming better defined in the next week as it moves toward the Bahamas and potentially most of Florida. There is growing concern that this system could stall over Florida, producing heavy rain.
Before any potential tropical depression or storm forms, the tropical wave has two possible paths. One path over the islands could slow its development, while another path over open water may accelerate it.
"Two giant areas of high pressure – one over the Central U.S. and the other over the Atlantic Ocean – will all but collapse the steering currents around Florida early next week. A large trough passing over New England will not directly help "capture" whatever tropical system forms and move it faster," explained FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren.
"There is a real concern for a scenario in which a tropical system completely stalls, sits, or even does multiple loops early-mid next week, which would become a big rain and potential flood event somewhere, but we are a long way from that," Bergren added. "Remember, even a stationary tropical depression or storm can still be extremely impactful if it sat for several days."
Residents of Florida, southern Alabama, and the Carolinas should closely monitor the system's development over the coming days.
"Check your supplies. Make sure you're not the person going out buying water, ice, gas, and everything the day before the hurricane because it'd be sold out," Craig Fugate, a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management and administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Tuesday while in Tallahassee. "But again, if you've done everything to get ready for hurricane season, you're just monitoring the storm."
Debby is the next storm name on tap for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Tropical development timeline, what to expect
The disturbance is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity. Development isn't expected in the short term, but forecasters say that environmental conditions are favorable for development as the tropical wave moves west-northwestward toward the Bahamas and Cuba.
Storms were firing around Puerto Rico on Wednesday evening, but there was still no center of circulation for the winds. What path this takes over the islands through Friday will significantly impact the eventual strength and impact.
Once the tropical wave enters the Florida Straits area on Saturday sometime, development into a tropical depression or even tropical storm should get underway. Water temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are very favorable for tropical development.
Where precisely this system will track remains very tricky. Guidance all shifted dramatically west on Wednesday. "Could it shift back east? Yes," Bergren said, "but there is still a lot of uncertainty."
For Central Florida, it all depends on the track of this system. If it goes west of us, more rain, gusty wind, and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday into early-mid next week.
If the system were to stall, significant major rainfall (15" or more) would occur wherever the center is.
The take-home message is that a slow-moving, meandering, or looping Tropical Storm, "Debby," will probably get going over the weekend. In the last few days, it appeared that it would track off Florida's Atlantic Coast. Now, it appears it may try to track over or up the Gulf Coast or the far eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Once we get to Friday and this thing is closer to Cuba, we should (hopefully) start to have a better handle on what will happen, where, and how severe.
Stay tuned to the FOX 35 Storm Team for more.