Tropical Storm Rafael likely to develop into Category 1 hurricane over the next 36 hours

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical Storm Raphael is likely to continue to strengthen over the very warm Caribbean over the next 24–36 hours, where it is expected to reach category 1 strength. 

On the current forecast track, it will move over Cuba and steer away from Florida and into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. 

As of the 10 a.m. update, Rafael is 65 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica and 200 miles southeast of the Grand Cayman Islands, according to the NHC. 

It is currently moving northwest at 13mph. 

It will encounter a much less favorable environment, with cooler waters and a good amount of upper-level wind shear. 

This will prevent the storm from further organization and strengthening, before eventually weakening back into a Tropical Storm ahead of landfall, which looks to take place over the Louisiana coast.

Will Rafael impact Florida?

Even though the eye and storm will not make landfall in Florida, in all likelihood, enough influence will be exerted into the state to push some enhanced downpours and storms into central Florida late Wednesday and through Thursday. 

Heavy rain is possible.

There are also signs of a low end tornado risk late Wednesday through Thursday. Any of the enhanced cells could produce a brief tornado in central Florida.

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30, 2024.

So far this year, we've had 16 named storms, and Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 season.

There have been three landfalling hurricanes in Florida: Debby, Helene, and Milton.