Tropical disturbance marked in Caribbean Sea as hurricane season end nears: NHC

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Published  October 26, 2024 10:18pm EDT
FOX 35 Orlando
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The National Hurricane Center has marked an area of interest in the southwest Caribbean Sea for potential tropical development.

An area of low pressure is likely to develop around the middle of next week, the NHC said, and "gradual development" is possible through the end of next week.

It's expected to meander northeastward over the Caribbean Sea.

It has a 0% chance of development over the next two days, and a 20% chance of development over the next seven days, according to the 8 p.m. advisory.

If it develops, where could it go? Here are three possibilities.

At this point, no system has developed, but the area itself is being monitored for potential development. Until that happens, it is tough to predict where it could go.

However, there are a couple of scenarios based on atmospheric conditions.

Possible scenario 1: A strong ridge of high pressure sets up over the southeast and steers any tropical development to the west following the path of Nadine
Possible scenario 2: Jet stream dips down but does not push out to the Atlantic causing storms to steer closer to the east coast with dominant high pressure over the central Atlantic
Possible scenario 3: Jet stream dips down and does push off the east coast allowing any tropical development to follow along the jet stream and storms will push out towards the central Atlantic

Four tropicals waves in the Atlantic Basin

There are four tropical waves in the Atlantic or Caribbean, according to the NHC's Tropical Outlook:

  • One is located in the eastern tropical Atlantic, southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It's moving west.
  • One is located in the central tropical Atlantic, near Guyana. Scattered thunderstorms are possible near the inland coast of Guyana.
  • One is in the central Caribbean, along 75W and 76W, from the Windward Passage to western Colombia. It's moving west.
  • One is in the western Caribbean near the Gulf of Honduras. It is moving west.

November Outlook

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, which means there is still a month left in the 2024 season.

Because ocean waters remain very warm, conditions are considered to be very favorable for tropical development in the Caribbean Sea.

Do hurricanes form in November? Rare, but possible

In short: Yes, it is possible for hurricanes to form in November – and they have – but the focus area moves away from the Gulf of Mexico and primarily rests in the Caribbean Sea.

However, hurricanes have formed and have made landfall in Florida. In fact, four hurricanes have made landfall in Florida since records were kept, according to the NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks widget.

Those were:

  • Hurricane Nicole (2022)
  • Hurricane Kate (1985)
  • Unnamed hurricane of 1935

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