National Hurricane Center: Tropical development in Gulf, near Florida possible next week; what we know

Tropical update: July 12, 2025
FOX 35 meteorologist Laurel Blanchard has the latest conditions in the tropics. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season runs July 1 - November 30. Download the FOX Local app for tropical alerts and notifications.
The National Hurricane Center has flagged an area of interest in the Gulf for potential tropical development next week. Regardless of tropical development, it could mean heavy rainfall for parts of Florida and the southern U.S. coast over the next several days.
This is the same area that the FOX 35 Storm Team and the Climate Prediction Center have been monitoring for the last couple of days. The NHC issued its outlook on Saturday afternoon.
It also comes days after weather experts at Colorado State University slightly revised their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. CSU is now predicting 16 total named storms, one storm less than its initial prediction.

What does this mean for Florida? How much rain could Orlando get?
According to the NHC, a broad area of low pressure could form over the next few days near the southeastern U.S. Coast and Florida. Conditions appear "marginally conducive" for potential tropical development by mid to late next week, as the system then moves west – away from Florida, the NHC said.
Some models – not all – show some tropical development, possibly into a tropical storm, said FOX 35 meteorologist Noah Bergren. Though we're still quite a few days away from determining that.
Regardless, it does mean heavy rainfall for Florida over the next several days, primarily Sunday - Wednesday. The model below shows potential total rainfall amounts through Friday. Do note, this is simply a computer model.

What are the development chances?
As of 2 p.m., the NHC's development odds are:
- 0% over the next 2 days (48 hours)
- 20% over the next 7 days
What is the next tropical storm name?
If a tropical storm does form, it would be known as Tropical Storm Dexter. The next three names on the list are Dexter, Erin, and Fernand.
How long is the Atlantic hurricane season? When does it end?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30, 2025.
The Source: The National Hurricane Center flagged the area of interest in its 2 p.m. update on Saturday, July 12.