Tropical Storm Debby expected to form Saturday; new watches, warnings issued for Florida

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ORLANDO, Fla. - We are no longer updating this story. For the latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, formerly known as Invest 97L, visit our live updates page.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four: Forecast updates

Here are the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Four:

5 p.m. update for Friday, August 2, 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is located about 25 miles west of Camaguey, Cuba, and about 315 miles southeast of Key West.

The disturbance is expected to move over Cuba on Friday night, cross the Florida Straits into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday as a tropical depression, and move near or over the west coast of Florida on Saturday night into Sunday night as Tropical Storm Debby.

The tropical storm warning has been extended north along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach to Boca Grande. Here's a look at the tropical storm warnings that have been issued:

Southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande

The tropical storm watch has also been extended north along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Aripeka to the mouth of the Suwannee River. Here are the tropical storm watches in effect:

The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
The southern coast of the Florida Peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
The west coast of the Florida Peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River

A storm surge watch has been issued for the west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach north to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

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2 p.m. update

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is located about 30 miles southeast of Cuba and 360 miles southeast of Key West. It has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and is moving west-northwest at 16 mph.

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11 a.m. update

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is located over Cuba and is about 420 miles southeast of Key West, Florida. It has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph and is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. The system has a minimum central pressure of 1012 mb.

The NHC says the system has a 90% chance of formation over the next seven days, and a 70% chance through the next 48 hours.

Forecasters said the system could produce rainfall totals up to 12 inches across parts of Florida and near the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Wednesday morning.

8 a.m. update

Invest 97L is currently producing poorly organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The NHC says the system now has a 90% chance of formation over the next seven days, and a 60% chance through the next 48 hours.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, formerly known as Invest 97L, which has a strong chance of becoming a tropical depression, and potentially Tropical Storm Debby this weekend near Florida.

Quick Facts

The system is expected to enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, where it will likely develop into a tropical depression as it crosses the Straits of Florida, and then intensify into a tropical storm by Saturday night.
The exact strength and landfall of the future storm are yet to be determined. The latest tracks show the storm's timing from this weekend through Monday.
Forecasters are encouraging Florida residents to top-off their supplies now and continue to monitor the forecast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four: Latest track

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Forecasters are encouraging Florida residents to top off their supplies now and continue to monitor the forecast.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four watches, warnings

The NHC has issued tropical storm watches and warnings for the Florida Keys and parts of Florida's west coast:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

Southwest coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka

Will Potential Cyclone Four impact Florida?

Landfall of this system would likely happen early Sunday, with impacts felt in Central Florida throughout the day on Sunday.

Those impacts include flooding rain with over 10 inches in some locations, isolated tornadoes, and wind gusts between 45 and 60 mph, which could lead to scattered power outages.