2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 17 storms in above-average season

ORLANDO, Fla. - Colorado State University released its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, predicting an above-average season for tropical storms and hurricanes.

CSU's prediction cites warm ocean temperatures in the subtropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea as the main factors, as well as calmer winds in the upper atmosphere – usually referred to as wind shear – due to a possibly weak or neutral El Niño, a naturally-occurring shift in the winds.

CSU is one of the first major organizations to release its annual hurricane season prediction. The National Weather Service will release its prediction closer to the start of the hurricane season, which runs June 1 - November 30, 2025.

CSU 2025 hurricane forecast: 17 named storms

By the numbers:

According to Colorado State University's forecast, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above average.

How many tropical storms and hurricanes are expected?

• 17 named tropical storms
• Of which, 9 become hurricanes
• Of which, 4 reach "major" hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher)

What is an average hurricane season?

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, an average Atlantic hurricane season sees:

• 14 named tropical storms
• 7 hurricanes
• 3 "major" hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

2024 Atlantic hurricane season: Prediction forecast vs. actual

Colorado State University's 2024 Atlantic hurricane season prediction:

• 23 named tropical storms
• 12 hurricanes
• 6 "major" hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

2024 Atlantic hurricane season actual:

• 18 named tropical storms
• 11 hurricanes
• 5 "major" hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

In Florida, three hurricanes made landfall in 2024: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene, and Hurricane Milton.

CSU Forecast: What factors anticipate an above-average hurricane season?

What they're saying:

"When waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation" - Colorado State University

How does Colorado State University calculate its prediction?

What they're saying:

"This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using ~40 years of past data. Analog predictors are utilized as well. We are also including statistical/dynamical models based on 25–40 years of past data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici model as four additional forecast guidance tools. All of our model guidance is pointing towards an above-normal season."

How likely will a tropical storm or hurricane make landfall in the U.S. this year?

Colorado State University also looks at the probability of whether a "major" hurricane – Category 3, 4, or 5 storm – will make landfall in the U.S., along Florida's Coast, or within the Gulf Coast.

• 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas(average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)

When does the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season start?

The season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2025. However, it is possible for a rare system to develop outside those timeframes. The "peak" of the Atlantic hurricane season is typically Sept. 10, though tropica activity increases between mid-August through mid-October. 

According to NHC, the first named tropical storm of a season typically happens in mid-to-late June. The first hurricane typically happens in early-to-mid August, while the first major hurricane (Cat. 3 or stronger) happens in late August or early September.

What are this year's tropical storm names?

Here are the tropical cyclone names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Click here to view the pronunciation guide.

• Andrea
• Barry
• Chantal
• Dexter
• Erin
• Fernand
• Gabrielle
• Humberto
• Imelda
• Jerry
• Karen
• Lorenzo
• Melissa
• Nestor
• Olga
• Pablo
• Rebekah
• Sebastien
• Tanya
• Van
• Wendy

Retired storm names: This week, the World Meteorological Organization decided to retire three storm names following the 2024 season: Beryl, Helene, and Milton. They will be replaced with Brianna, Holly, Miguel. The WMO traditionally retires a storm name when it is a particularly devastating or deadly storm. 

How do you prepare for hurricane season?

It's never too early to prepare for the upcoming hurricane season – or any emergency. It's important to have a plan, have ways to communicate and get emergency information, save and protect important documents, medication, and have extra food and water.

• Florida Disaster Supply Kit Checklist
• Ready.Gov emergency kit

Download the FOX Local app

The FOX 35 Storm Team and newsroom will be with you every step of the way during hurricane season. Download the free FOX Local app to your smart phone for the latest breaking news, weather updates, and tropical forecasts. Download the FOX 35 Weather app to track the latest weather forecasts and tropical cones on your cell phone. Install the FOX Local app to your smart TV to stream FOX 35 newscasts.

What's next:

Colorado State University will release monthly hurricane predictions in June, July, and August. In August, CSU will then release two-week forecasts in August, September, and October.

The NWS will release its prediction closer to the start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. 

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