Will the tropical disturbance in the Atlantic affect Florida?

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a trough of low pressure in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. 

The trough is currently located a couple hundred miles to the northeast of the Bahamas. In the NHC's latest update on Friday morning, an area of low pressure is expected to form later on Friday in an area between Bermuda and Hispaniola, which includes the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Update - May 24, 7:31 a.m. (Photo: NHC)

"Some slight" subtropical or tropical development is possible over the next few days as the system moves toward the northeast, according to forecasters. Environmental conditions aren't favorable for development, though. There's a 10% chance of formation in the next week. 

Should the disturbance come together in the Caribbean, it would focus all the rain into a concentrated area which would diminish Central Florida's overall rain chances over the next week – unless the system was to make its way into Florida, which is a reach, according to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner.

"There's low certainty anything tropical will form, much less track into our area," he said. 

The trough popped up in the Atlantic days before the official start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) handed down its official prediction for the season – its most ferocious yet. A record 17-25 named storms are anticipated, with 8 to 13 of them becoming hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph. Seven of them could be considered major hurricanes. 

It's the greatest number of hurricanes predicted by NOAA in its annual May forecast since 2010, when it predicted 14 to 23 named storms. 

Overall, there's an 85% chance of an "above-average" season. 

The first named system typically forms around June 20, and the first hurricane by Aug. 11.