Tropical disturbance being monitored in the Atlantic, possibly headed towards Florida: NHC

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean that could possibly move towards the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

As of Friday evening, the "area of disturbed weather" was located in the central tropical Atlantic and is expected to collide with a tropical wave over the next several days, the NHC said. It has a low chance – 20% – of further development.

The environment will initially be hostile to development through Aug. 1, with unfavorable conditions such as wind shear, Saharan Dust, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). However, after Aug. 1, conditions may become more conducive to development.

Key factors include the wave's integrity and trajectory. If the wave stays north of the islands later next week, its development chances will increase. Development is unlikely if it remains over the islands or south of the islands. The GFS model is pessimistic about development odds, while the EURO model shows a bit more potential for the system to form.

Residents in Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the southeastern U.S. should monitor this tropical wave in the coming days. There is no immediate cause for concern or to alter plans. By early next week, the likelihood of this system forming will be more precise.

If it did, the next name on the 2024 tropical cyclone list is "Debby."

Development is possible as the disturbance progresses toward the Lesser Antilles early or mid-next week. For the rest of next week, it is expected to move toward the west-northwest near the Greater Antilles.