Expand / Collapse search
☰

NHC tracking tropical wave with potential to become tropical depression this week

By
Updated  September 2, 2024 8:07pm EDT
Weather
FOX 35 Orlando

Tropical wave moving across Caribbean

A tropical wave in the Caribbean currently has a 40% chance of development, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Models have recently reduced the likelihood of long-term development, but the NHC maintains the forecast at 40%.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical disturbances, one of which could become a tropical depression this week.  

Here's a breakdown of the latest tropics forecast:

Wave 1: Near Lesser Antilles, Caribbean

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a tropical wave in the Caribbean currently has a 40% chance of developing. 

Models have recently reduced the likelihood of long-term development, but the NHC maintains the forecast at 40%. The wave is expected to approach the Yucatán Peninsula by Friday and enter the Bay of Campeche this weekend or Monday. 

Forecast data is mixed beyond that point: about half of the models suggest the wave will dissipate, 25% suggest potential tropical development in the southwestern Gulf, and the remaining data suggests it could become a tropical depression with heavy rain before being absorbed by a cold front, which could bring the remnants to Florida later next week. While long-term development appears less likely, the wave should still be monitored closely.

The next name on the 2024 storm list is Francine. 

Wave 3: Eastern tropical Atlantic 

The National Hurricane Center is also tracking a tropical wave over western Africa forecast to move offshore on Monday. 

Forecasters said environmental conditions could be favorable for some slow development throughout the week when the disturbance moves offshore. The wave will move slowly toward the west or west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. 

There's a low (40%) chance of development in the next week. 

Aside from these two systems, no other significant activity is expected in the Atlantic, where conditions remain unexpectedly hostile despite historically high sea surface temperatures.

There are several working theories in the meteorological community, a few of which include:

  • Temperatures are too warm in the upper atmosphere (part climate change/part the pattern we are in/part possibly the Hunga Tonga Volcano eruption).
  • There is too much wind shear, way more than thought for a developing La Niña.
  • Waves have struggled to develop even in zones of otherwise favorable to highly favorable atmospheric conditions.

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.   

2024 Atlantic hurricane season names, pronunciation guide

  • Alberto (al-BAIR-toe)
  • Beryl (BEHR-ril)
  • Chris (kris)
  • Debby (DEH-bee)
  • Ernesto (er-NES-toh)
  • Francine (fran-SEEN)
  • Gordon (GOR-duhn)
  • Helene (heh-LEEN)
  • Isaac (EYE-zik)
  • Joyce (joys)
  • Kirk (kurk)
  • Leslie (LEHZ-lee)
  • Milton (MIL-ton)
  • Nadine (nay-DEEN)
  • Oscar (AHS-kur)
  • Patty (PAT-ee)
  • Rafael (rah-fah-ELL)
  • Sara (SAIR-uh)
  • Tony (TOH-nee)
  • Valerie (VAH-lur-ee)
  • William (WILL-yum)

If all of a season's names are used, there is an alternate name list, which includes an additional 21 names. Those names for the Atlantic season include, Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery, Foster, Gemma, Heath, Isla, Jacobus, Kenzie, Lucio, Makayla, Nolan, Orlanda, Pax, Ronin, Sophie, Tayshaun, Viviana, and Will.

Stay connected with FOX 35