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Atlantic tropical disturbance could become tropical depression next week: National Hurricane Center

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Updated  July 27, 2024 11:17pm EDT
FOX 35 Orlando Tropical Weather Forecast
FOX 35 Orlando

Tropics forecast: Odds increase for Atlantic disturbance

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance -- from 20% to 40% -- that a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean could develop into a tropical depression next week. It's moving toward the Leeward Islands and Great Antilles. It's too soon to tell if it will impact Florida.

ORLANDO, Fla. - A tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean has a slightly better chance of developing into a tropical depression next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The NHC increased the chance of further development from 20% to 40% on Saturday.

In its 8 p.m. update, the NHC said the tropical disturbance could become a tropical depression next week, possibly mid-week, as it nears the Northern Caribbean, Great Antilles Islands, and Leeward Islands.

According to FOX 35 meteorologist Laurel Blanchard, the tropical wave remains in an environment that is unfavorable for development through July 31, according to forecast models.

However, after July 31, conditions in the tropics change to become more favorable for potential development, including less Saharan dust, less aggressive wind shear, and the warm ocean water surface temperatures.

Will the tropical disturbance become Tropical Storm Debby? Is it headed toward Florida?

Right now, it's too soon to tell. There are still a lot of things up in the air with this. 

Here are three main questions:

  •  Will this tropical wave stay organized enough to develop once it makes its way into the Northern Caribbean and the Antilles Islands area?
  • Where could the wave go? Could it impact the Caribbean Islands? Could it impact Florida?

If this tropical wave stays north of the islands later next week, then a bit better chance of development exists. If it stays over or south of the islands, it most likely will fizzle out quickly. 

One more scenario that's possible – suggested by the most recent GFS model – shows the system strengthening into a spinning system, going over the Islands and then fizzling out as it makes its way into the gulf. 

The EURO model still remains confident that this will be a spinning system when it gets into the possible development area and that it stays north of the islands.

This is something to most definitely keep an eye on for areas in Florida, Northern Caribbean and the Greater Antilles Islands, but because this is still so far out and this tropical wave is very disorganized, we'll have to wait a few more days.