Tropical wave in Atlantic has high chance of developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto next week, NHC says

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Published  August 10, 2024 10:33am EDT
FOX 35 Orlando
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Future Tropical Storm Ernesto brewing in Atlantic

As Tropical Storm Debby looms into Canada, forecasters have their eyes on a tropical wave developing in the Atlantic. This system is forecast to develop into Tropical Storm Ernesto.

The National Hurricane Center has upped the chances of a tropical wave developing into a tropical depression by next week. 

The system now has an 80% chance of development over the next seven days and a 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours. The wave is currently located near the Lesser and Greater Antilles. 

Shower and thunderstorms associated with the system have increased since Friday near the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. A gradual development of the system is forecast to happen over the next couple of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. 

A tropical depression is forecast to form by next week as the system moves over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to develop into Tropical Storm Ernesto. 

Will the tropical wave impact Florida?

According to the FOX 35 Storm Team, early computer models show the system likely curving out to sea before coming too close to Florida. Although this track will keep the direct impacts of the storm hundreds of miles east of Florida, we would have some indirect impacts. 

A long-period swell and its associated rip currents and strong long-shore current can develop at Florida beaches beginning next weekend, making for dangerous swimming conditions. 

The ultimate track for the system is far from certain as it hasn't formed yet. 

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