Tropical Storm Rafael forms, expected to become hurricane in Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the Caribbean, and is forecast to briefly become a Category 2 hurricane later this week over Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is then forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico, staying west of Florida's Gulf coast.

As of 4 p.m., Tropical Storm Rafael was 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. It has sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.

Tropical storm watches were issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, including Key West, Channel 5 Bridge, and Dry Tortugas.

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to move near Jamaica Monday night, near or over Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday, the NHC said. 

It is expected to quickly strengthen and become a hurricane on Tuesday, the NHC said.

Is Tropical Storm Rafael expected to impact Florida?

Rafael is expected to stay more than 250 miles west of Florida's Gulf Coast, which means no direct impact to Central Florida is expected, though it will bring rain to the area mid-week.

The current forecast calls for minimal impacts, primarily downpours on Wednesday and Thursday with an outside chance of an isolated tornado. Winds gusts could be 25-35 mph. 

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30, 2024.

So far this year, we've had 17 named storms.

Of the 17, there have been six tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. There have been three landfalling hurricanes in Florida: Debby, Helene, and Milton.