Possible tropical development could bring heavy rain to Florida

ORLANDO, Fla. - Tropical moisture pooling over the western Caribbean will be pulled northward into Florida and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week, as an upper-level system over the northeast US moves through.

This will result in numerous downpours next week, providing welcome and drought-busting rains across Florida. Some communities could see as much as a foot of rain cumulatively, over the 5-10 days beginning by the middle of next week. 

This will also mark the start of the wettest of the Florida Rainy Season, establishing a base of moisture that'll be stirred up each hot afternoon and sparked by daily afternoon sea breezes.

There is also a chance for tropical development over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico next week, should that tropical moisture start to swirl. The GFS long-range model suggests the development of low pressure which may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, but this scenario is historically unlikely as that specific model as a strong bias to spin-up tropical systems when they ultimately never actually happen.  

It's too soon to model chase, as far as comparing run-by-run between different models, but if low pressure starts to come together in that region early next week, we'll leap into that mode. 

If a system were to form, it's unlikely to be strong, but it would represent a heavy rain threat wherever it is tracked. So far the National Hurricane Center is not forecasting a tropical system over the next seven days, while the NWS Climate Prediction Center says there's a <20% chance of a system coming together. This time of year, Tropical depressions and storms tend to feature the heaviest rain on the east side of the circulation and often hundreds of miles east of the center. So if a system formed and headed toward Mobile, Alabama, we may see the heaviest rain.