Tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico to bring Florida heavy rain, gusty winds later this week

ORLANDO, Fla. - Ahead of the official start of hurricane season on Thursday, a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is heading toward Florida, where it will provide widespread showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds starting Wednesday and lasting through the weekend.

This comes after parts of the Sunshine State saw up to 10 inches of rain last week before a little break in the storms over the past few days.

While there will be a risk of gloomy weather in the northern part of the state, the central and southern areas of Florida will face an even higher risk of turbulent weather.

Tampa and Miami, for example, have forecasts of rain and thunderstorms through the rest of the workweek and lasting into the weekend.

Tropical development possible in Gulf of Mexico

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has highlighted a disturbance in the central Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development over the coming days.

The NHC said the area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with an area of low pressure situated over the warm waters of the Gulf.

Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, according to the NHC.

Forecasters say the system is forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula this weekend and will then emerge into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by early next week.

"Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the Florida Peninsula later this week," the NHC said.

The NHC gives the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of developing over the next seven days.

"A low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico must always be monitored for possible tropical development this time of year," FOX Weather senior digital meteorologist Brian Donegan said. "While the odds of a tropical depression or storm forming are very low, this system is still expected to provide a surge of tropical moisture to Florida late this week and into the weekend, regardless of development."

Florida faces flash flood threat this week

With the threat of widespread thunderstorms and torrential rain also comes the risk of flash flooding.

As the action gets going on Thursday, the threat of flash flooding in Florida will stretch from areas just north of Orlando through cities like Tampa, Melbourne, West Palm Beach, Naples and Miami.

That risk will run through at least Friday morning, meaning it won't be ideal beach weather as we prepare for the weekend.

How much rain will fall in Florida this week?

The highest rainfall amounts are expected to fall across southern portions of Florida from about the Tampa area south through Fort Pierce, West Palm Beach and Miami.

Orlando and Central Florida could pick up between 1 and 2 inches of rain through Saturday. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain, with some locally higher amounts, could fall from the Tampa area to the state's east coast, while areas from West Palm Peach south could see 3 to 5 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, through Saturday.
 

Will the rain help drought conditions in Florida?'

Recent rain in Florida has helped to reduce some of the drought conditions in the state, but most of the rain has been centered across southwestern areas, while areas on the Sunshine State's west coast are still extremely dry.

"I mean, look at Tampa, Sarasota, the St. Petersburg area," FOX Weather meteorologist Jason Frazer said, noting the extensive drought in the region. "You are on a Category 4 out of 5 (drought). And whenever we talk about a Category 4 out of 5 here, I mean, we’re talking about some of the worst here."

Frazer said Tampa needs about 2 to 3 inches of additional rain to ease a lot of the drought conditions in that area.

Tropical mischief in June is common the Gulf of Mexico

The Gulf of Mexico, northwest Caribbean Sea and the western Atlantic are the climatologically favored regions for tropical development in early June.

The FOX Forecast Center said due to marginal atmospheric conditions, cyclones usually never reach hurricane status and remain either a tropical depression or tropical storm during their lifecycle.

The last cyclone to make landfall during June along Florida's west coast was Tropical Storm Colin in 2016.

The first named storm typically forms around June 20, according to NHC cli data.