Tropical disturbance in Atlantic now has 40 percent chance of development: NHC

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor a disturbance in the tropical Atlantic that could possibly become a tropical depression by mid-week.

There were no significant changes between Saturday evening and Sunday morning’s advisories.

The system of disorganized showers and thunderstorms remains in the tropical Atlantic and has a 40% chance of further development over the next 7 days, the NHC said.

However, as it moves toward the Caribbean and Lower Antilles Islands, it has a better chance of developing due to limited Saharan dust, low wind shear, and warmer ocean waters — the trifecta of ingredients that can help a tropical system develop.

Is it headed towards Florida?

The tropical wave that we are watching is still in an environment that is unfavorable for development through about Wednesday, July 31. After July 31 into the first week in August, things will become much more favorable for a tropical system to develop. In the Northern Caribbean and the Greater Antilles Islands area, there is less Saharan Dust, less aggressive wind shear and the very warm ocean temperatures that are also all factors that allow for tropical development.

There are still a lot of things up in the air with this. Some of the burning questions won't really be able to be answered until this tropical wave gets closer and starts developing possibly this week. But the main questions that still can't be answered quite yet, is the path of where this system will end up and the strength of the system itself after development.

If this tropical wave stays north of the islands later next week, then a bit better chance of development exists. If it stays over or south of the islands, it most likely will fizzle out quickly. And also one more scenario possible as suggested by the most recent GFS, is the system strengthening into a spinning system, going over the Islands and then fizzling out as it makes its way into the gulf, then re-strengthening into a stronger system due to the very warm ocean temperatures and quickly developing along the coasts of the Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. 

The EURO sides with the possibility that this will be a spinning system when it gets into the possible development area that it stays north of the islands and further develops along Florida's east coast.The most important takeaway at the moment is that this storm has not even formed yet so there is no need to change plans or get worried at this time. However, it may be best to use this time to get prepared for when things do start to ramp up. 

This system as it is right now is still a cluster of thunderstorms in the middle of the Atlantic and the FOX 35 Storm Team should have a better idea of how this storm will develop and play out come Tuesday or Wednesday. What we do know is that if it were to impact Florida it would be between August 3 and August 6, and that the conditions (both atmospheric and oceanic) in the Northern Caribbean, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands have the potential to allow a tropical system to develop. It is ultimately where and how this system will develop are questions that are too early to answer. The next tropical storm name up is Debby.