Tropical depression likely in Gulf of Mexico next week: National Hurricane Center

By and FOX 35 Storm Team
Updated  September 21, 2024 8:43pm EDT
FOX 35 Orlando
Loading Video…

This browser does not support the Video element.

4th tropical disturbance forms in the Atlantic

A fourth tropical disturbance formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season hits peak season.

ORLANDO, Fl - A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea could become a tropical depression next week as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The tropical disturbance now has a medium chance of development, 70%, over the next seven days, the NHC said. Regardless of when it forms, it is expected to bring heavy rain to Central America. It is still too early to tell what impact it will have on the U.S. Gulf Coast, including Florida, if any.

There is a 0% chance, however of anything forming within the next 48 hours. Models are still giving every which scenario so it is difficult to tell at this point the strength, and path of the storm as the wave is not even formed yet. But what we do know at this time is that the conditions are right in that zone for a tropical system to take off. The ocean temperatures are very warm and the low shear in that zone could lead to a homegrown tropical system in the gulf, so we will be monitoring this closely. Ultimately, if a system does form, it could intensify very quickly. It is still way too early to tell, for now it is just an area of interest.

Models are suggesting that IF something does start to develop there are 2 ways this could play out at some point late next week. # 1 If a strong cold front over the central/eastern U.S., This could push the tropical system towards Florida. GFS is gearing towards this scenario. With this, IF something does form, the system will have less time in the warm Gulf water and hopefully not as strong of a tropical system. # 2  scenario is a much weaker cold front and a high over the Bahamas/Florida that will act as a shield for Florida. Then, the system would likely push just west of FL and into MS/AL/LA. This is being more suggested by the EURO. This system, if following the EURO, would intensify and stay in the gulf for longer and possibly get stronger and become more of a long lived storm.

It is one of four disturbances being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. More details on that below.

Is the potential tropical disturbance headed toward Florida?

It's still too early to know exactly where this potential system will go – and if it will ultimately impact Florida. As of right now, it is not yet a tropical depression, tropical storm, or even a hurricane.

However, regardless of where and when it develops, rain is likely for parts of Florida. How much? Unclear at this moment. It is a system that the National Hurricane Center and the FOX 35 Storm Team are monitoring.

Currently, two of the main future forecast models – the GFS and EURO models, computers that use data to predict a system's possible track – show two potentially different scenarios.

The first scenario comes from the Global Forecast System Model (GFS) and is showing a strong cold front over the central/eastern U.S. This could push the tropical system towards Florida, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team.

The second scenario, suggested by the EURO model, would be a much weaker cold front and/or stronger high over the Bahamas and Florida will almost act as a shield protecting the state. This would then in turn push the storm west towards Mississippi, Alabama and Texas.

As with all models, the data and projections could change hour by hour.

If the system develops into a tropical depression and continues to develop, it could end up being Tropical Storm Helene.  

3 other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic

There are three other tropical disturbances being monitored in the Atlantic, all with low chances of further development over the next seven days, including the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon.

RELATED: Fourth tropical disturbance pops up in Atlantic; any impacts to Florida?

So far, no concerns with those three about potential impacts to Florida.

STAY CONNECTED WITH FOX 35 ORLANDO: