Tracking the tropics Florida: Atlantic disturbance has better odds of development

ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic for potential development that could impact Florida later this week.

NHC forecasters report a 50% medium chance of formation within the next seven days. By Saturday or Sunday, it could develop as far east as the British and U.S. Virgin Islands or as far west as Florida shores.

The NHC said the disturbance could become a tropical depression mid to late week while the system is near the Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, southwestern Atlantic Ocean, or the southeastern Bahamas.

Will the disturbance impact Florida?

FOX 35 Storm Team Chief Meteorologist Brooks Garner said huge uncertainty remains regarding where the tropical system will go and what it could become. 

"Models are all over the place on both fronts, but one thing they do agree on is that this is unlikely to be a major system," Garner said. 

"The reason that this isn't going gangbusters in becoming a tropical depression or a storm today is because it's fighting a bunch of dry air, Garner said. "The Saharan dust plume, you can see it here in the Atlantic. And there's another little dust plume here out over the Caribbean."

The disturbance is also interacting with a tropical wave, which is keeping it relatively weak and limiting its potential for development as it moves through a dry zone, with the dust traveling with it. 

While that could change, an early outlook for impacts in Florida includes higher rain chances this weekend and a high risk for rip currents at the beaches with elevated surf. 

If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be named Debby.