Tropical threat increases for Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico; Tropical Depression 12 forms in Atlantic

Tropics update: New disturbance could form in the Gulf

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist T.J. Springer is tracking a number of disturbances in the Caribbean and the Atlantic. Here is the latest.

ORLANDO, Fl - As Florida continues to clean up from Hurricane Helene, odds are increasing for the potential development of a tropical depression in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. If it develops further into a tropical storm, the next storm names on the list are Kirk, Leslie, and Milton.

The odds of development for this potential tropical disturbance over the next seven days are at 50%, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its Saturday morning update, the NHC said a broad area of low pressure over the wester Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized shows and thunderstorms, though gradual development is possible.

Like Helene, the Central American Gyre (CAG) is influencing this system, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team. The CAG is the circular

The Central American Gyre is a broad area of low pressure that forms in the atmosphere during certain times of the year, particularly in late spring and early fall. Unlike the tight, organized structure of a hurricane, the gyre is diffuse and can cover a wide region, extending its impact across hundreds of miles. While the CAG itself may not develop into a storm, it often serves as the breeding ground for tropical disturbances, according to the FOX TV Digital Team.

It is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico. It's still too soon to know where this system, if it ultimately develops, will go, and how it may impact the United States' Gulf coast, including Florida.

Models, Springer said, show various outcomes at this point, but suggest a tropical storm could form.

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Four other systems being watched in the Atlantic: Hurricane Isaac, Tropical Storm Joyce, Tropical Depression 12

There are four other disturbances being monitored in the Atlantic, including Hurricane Isaac, Tropical Storm Joyce, and Tropical Depression 12. Both Isaac and Joyce have no impact in the United States. Both are far out in the Atlantic Ocean and are expected to fizzle over the next few days.

Tropical Depression 12

Tropical Depression 12 formed Sunday afternoon in the east Atlantic, several hundred miles from Tropical Storm Joyce. It was previously known as Invest 90L.

The National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory that Tropical Depression 12 could become a "formidable hurricane" later this week.

It's located about 585 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and 2,050 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. It had sustained winds of 35 mph, and is moving west at 9 mph.

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Tropical Depression 12 is expected to continue moving west across the Atlantic for th next several days. It's expected to gradually strengthen and may rapidly intensify over the next couple of days, before becoming a hurricane by Wednesday, the NHC said.

Behind Tropical Depression 12 is a tropical wave near the coast of western Africa. That potential system has limited showers and thunderstorms, the NHC said.

Upper-level winds may allow gradual development of this system over the next several days. In its latest update, this disturbance has a 30% chance of development over the next week.

When does Atlantic hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends on November 30, 2024. The peak of hurricane season is typically Sept. 10 with a second peak – primarily for the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico – in the middle of October.