System in the Gulf of Mexico could bring significant rain to parts of Florida

ORLANDO, Fl - In the Gulf of Mexico, disorganized showers and thunderstorms are present over the western Gulf, associated with a trough of low pressure. A broad area of low pressure is anticipated to form over the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. As this low slowly moves eastward or northeastward, some gradual development is possible. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form by early to mid-next week, particularly if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary expected to stretch across the Gulf.

Even without significant tropical development, locally heavy rains are forecasted for parts of Mexico over the next few days. As the system progresses, heavy rainfall could extend into the Florida Peninsula later this weekend and into next week, posing a risk of localized flooding.

The system has a near-zero chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours. However, the likelihood increases to 40% over the next seven days, with the system's evolution dependent on its separation from the incoming frontal boundary.

How could the system impact Florida?

The developing system in the Gulf of Mexico could bring significant rain to parts of Florida, especially later this weekend and into next week. Here are the potential impacts:

Heavy Rain and Flooding:

Regardless of whether the system strengthens into a tropical or subtropical storm, it is expected to transport a lot of moisture toward the Florida Peninsula. This could lead to heavy rains, particularly in central and southern Florida. Flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas is a concern.

Timing:

Rain could begin as early as this weekend and continue into next week. The exact timing and intensity depend on how the system develops and moves.

Localized Storms:

The system may bring thunderstorms and gusty winds, especially if it becomes better organized. While major winds aren’t expected unless the system strengthens significantly, localized strong storms could accompany the rain.

Track Uncertainty:

There’s still uncertainty about the system’s track. If it moves more northeastward or stays farther south, areas like Orlando may see moderate rain (2-4 inches), but a shift north could bring heavier rain totals (8 inches or more) to central Florida.

Improving Conditions Later:

After this system passes, a cold front is expected to bring cooler, more pleasant weather by the end of next week.

The main takeaway is that heavy rain is likely, and localized flooding is a concern for Florida. Residents should keep an eye on updates, especially if the system strengthens or changes track.

The National Hurricane Center is also currently monitoring Hurricane Kirk over the central subtropical Atlantic and Tropical Storm Leslie in the eastern tropical Atlantic.