This browser does not support the Video element.
Tracking the Tropics: July 4, 2023
The FOX 35 Storm Team is monitoring the tropics.
ORLANDO, Fla. - Despite an unseasonably active start to the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season in June, the tropics have been recently rather quiet.
The National Hurricane Center said tropical storm formation is not expected for at least the next seven days.
Why have the tropics been quiet?
Blame the dry, dusty air that continues to exit Western Africa and spill into the Tropical Atlantic. The warmth, strong winds and dryness associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a proven performer when it comes to keeping tropical activity at bay.
SAL production normally ramps up in mid-June through mid-August. Coverage of the dusty veil of air can be rather extensive, reaching all the way to Florida and Texas if the steering winds are just right.
Another factor keeping the tropics quiet is the ever-increasing volume of wind shear over the tropical regions of the Atlantic basin.
Wind shear can be rather disruptive to any tropical feature trying to spin up. "Right now, I would deem most areas where tropical development could occur as downright hostile and most forecast models indicate just that through the next several days," FOX 35 Storm Team Chief Meteorologist Jayme King said.
RELATED STORIES:
- What to expect in the tropics as Atlantic hurricane season enters July
- NHC: Atlantic hurricane season sees above-average start with 3 tropical storms in June
Will a tropical storm or hurricane form in July?
Water temperatures are warm across the basin, which could aid in cyclone formation in the middle and end of the month, but upper-level winds are generally more robust during El Niño seasons, which can lead to decreased activity.
The next cyclone that strengthens into a tropical storm will earn the name "Don."
All it takes is one tropical storm or hurricane to cause major impacts to Florida. The FOX 35 Storm Team is monitoring the tropics and will continue to bring you updates.