Potential Tropical Cyclone 19: Tropical system to become Tropical Storm Sara, Florida impact possible

Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 forecast to strengthen

Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara as it approaches Central America, and may be near hurricane strength, according to the National Hurricane Center. It's also expected to cross the Gulf of Mexico and approach Florida.

Update (11/14): Tropical Storm Sara formed on Thursday, becoming the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. We've stopped updating this story. Click here for the latest on Tropical Storm Sara.

A tropical disturbance building in the Caribbean Sea has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 by the National Hurricane Center, and is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm – known as Tropical Storm Sara – over the next few days.

On Wednesday, PTC 19, formerly known as Invest 99L, was over 400 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and 290 miles east-northeast of Cabo Gracias A Dios, near the Honduras-Nicaragua border, the NHC said. Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph - about 9 mph away from becoming tropical storm strength.

It is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara as it approaches Central America this week, and be near hurricane strength, the NHC said, and could hold that strength as it crosses near Mexico early next week.

The PTC designation allows the NHC to run more computer models, including declaring the so-called cone.

Is a tropical storm headed towards Florida?

It's too soon to tell how the system will impact the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Computer models show a variety of paths, including reaching northern Florida, Central Florida, and South Florida, though it's too soon to know for sure. We should know more each day.

Two current scenarios for Florida impact:

Scenario 1: The storm tracks between Cancun and Cuba, potentially becoming a major hurricane over open water and impacting Florida early next week as a strong system.

Scenario 2: The storm moves over Nicaragua and Honduras before heading toward Belize, eventually reaching the Gulf and possibly heading for Florida. This track would likely result in a weaker system.

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When will we know?

We'll learn more throughout the week as the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this potential system and provide updates on its development.

When does hurricane season end?

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends on Nov. 30, 2024. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. While rare, it is possible for storms to form outside those windows.

How many tropical storms and hurricanes have we had this year?

If Sara forms, it would mark the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

So far this year, we've had 11 hurricanes and six tropical storms with 17 named storms total.

Hurricanes: Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Helene, Isaac, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Oscar, Rafael.

Tropical storms: Alberto, Chris, Gordon, Joyce, Nadine, and Patty.

Three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida: Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene, and Hurricane Milton.

In November, only three hurricanes have made landfall on Florida in the last 173 years of records. Those were an unnamed storm of 1935, Hurricane Kate in 1985, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.

What names are left on the list?

Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

There are 21 names given each hurricane season, which repeat every six years. Names can be retired if they were considerably destructive or deadly.

If all 21 names are used in a season, there is a supplemental list of storm names. The first five on that list are: Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, and Emery.