Tropical Storm Rafael forms: Florida Keys under tropical storm watch

ORLANDO, Fla. - Update: Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the Caribbean and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane, possibly a Cat. 2, before reaching the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida Keys, the National Hurricane Center said.

Click here for updates on Tropical Storm Rafael. 

Original story

Tropical Depression 18 formed early Monday morning in the Caribbean and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Rafael later Monday, and then a hurricane as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The tropical system is expected to stay west of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico, though Central Florida is expected to feel some of its impacts this week, including gusty winds and heavy rain.

As of 10 a.m., Tropical Depression 18 was located 195 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 400 miles southeast of Grand Cayman with sustained winds of 35 mph. It is moving north at 9 mph.

Watches and warnings have been issued for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. Tropical Depression 18 is expected to be near Jamaica on Monday night, near Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approaching Cuba on Wednesday.

Is future Tropical Storm Rafael headed toward Florida?

Tropical Depression 18 is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday night, and to become a Category 1 hurricane by Wednesday, the NHC said.

Future Rafael is expected to stay more than 250 miles west of Florida's Gulf Coast, which means no direct impact to Central Florida is expected, though it will bring rain to the area mid-week.

The current forecast calls for minimal impacts, primarily downpours on Wednesday and Thursday with an outside chance of an isolated tornado. Winds gusts could be 25-35 mph. 

What changed?

Earlier computer model projections had indicated that Rafael may be closer to the Gulf coast, though still not a direct hit. That could have posed a larger flooding threat with more severe weather.

However, since the storm is expected to travel further west, those impacts to Florida have lessened.

Despite the storm’s path, the region will experience a surge in humidity midweek, making conditions feel more summer-like. Rainfall totals are forecast to range between 1 and 3 inches, and temperatures will remain warmer than normal, with highs in the mid-80s, about 5 degrees above average.

While the overall tornado threat is considered low, residents are encouraged to stay updated on the storm's progress in case conditions change.

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30, 2024.

So far this year, we've had 16 named storms, and if Rafael forms, it would mark the 17th named storm of the 2024 season.

Of the 16, there have been five tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. There have been three landfalling hurricanes in Florida: Debby, Helene, and Milton.