Caribbean system could potentially develop in the next seven days, NHC says

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Updated  October 28, 2024 9:40pm EDT
FOX 35 Orlando
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Potential for tropical development in Caribbean

In the tropics, attention is focused on the Caribbean, where there is a 40% chance of tropical development over the next week.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Forecasters are closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next week. 

These odds are expected to rise, with the possibility of a tropical system forming between Saturday, Nov. 2, and Monday, Nov. 4. If the system forms, it will be named "Patty."

There are two potential paths for the developing system:

SCENARIO 1: A stronger storm could form and move slowly northwest in the Caribbean, potentially strengthening into a hurricane due to favorable conditions. It may drift toward the Yucatan Peninsula, with the possibility of entering the Gulf of Mexico. However, cooler waters and wind shear could weaken the system if it reaches the Gulf.

SCENARIO 2: The system could remain weaker and cross near Haiti or the Dominican Republic. It could either dissipate or be pushed back northwest by high pressure in the Atlantic, potentially bringing it closer to the east coast of Florida or the southeastern U.S. Even if it remains offshore, the system could cause high surf, rip currents, and minor coastal flooding.

Despite some models backing off development, experts believe conditions remain favorable for the formation of a named storm in the central Caribbean by this weekend or early next week. The strength and path of the system will be crucial in determining its potential impact.

While Florida faces no immediate threat, travelers to the Caribbean are advised to monitor the forecast closely as the system develops.

There are currently no spaghetti models showing the potential paths because the system does not exist yet. 

In Florida's history, there have only been three land-falling hurricanes in the month of November, with the last one being Hurricane Nicole in 2022.  


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