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Potential Caribbean system likely to develop over the weekend or early next week, NHC says

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Updated  October 30, 2024 8:09pm EDT
FOX 35 Orlando Tropical Weather Forecast
FOX 35 Orlando

Next tropical threat could come from Caribbean Sea

The next tropical threat could be brewing in the Caribbean Sea as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the possible development of an area of low pressure that could eventually become our next tropical depression.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Forecasters are closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next week. 

These odds are expected to rise, with the possibility of a tropical system forming by the end of this week or into the weekend. If the system forms, it will be named "Patty."

There are two potential paths for the developing system:

SCENARIO 1: If the system goes towards the Gulf of Mexico, it could potentially mean some more of a threat to Florida or the United States towards the end of next week. Water temperatures are still historically hot in the Caribbean and wind shear is projected to be light, meaning that when the storm is in the Caribbean, it could become a hurricane or possibly even a strong one if it sits over that water long enough. 

SCENARIO 2: A weaker storm that will be steered out into the Atlantic, staying off the shore of the east coast. Climatologically, this is more of a typical pattern we'd see, especially this time of year. 

Despite some models backing off development, experts believe conditions remain favorable for the formation of a named storm in the central Caribbean by this weekend or early next week. The strength and path of the system will be crucial in determining its potential impact.

While Florida faces no immediate threat, travelers to the Caribbean are advised to monitor the forecast closely as the system develops.

There are currently no spaghetti models showing the potential paths because the system does not exist yet. 

In Florida's history, there have only been three land-falling hurricanes in the month of November, with the last one being Hurricane Nicole in 2022.  

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