Potential Caribbean system likely to develop over the weekend or early next week, NHC says

Next tropical threat could come from Caribbean Sea

The next tropical threat could be brewing in the Caribbean Sea as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the possible development of an area of low pressure that could eventually become our next tropical depression.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Forecasters are closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean with a 40% chance of tropical development over the next week.

These odds are expected to rise, with the possibility of a tropical system forming by the end of this week or into the weekend. If the system forms, it will be named "Patty."

There are two potential paths for the developing system:

SCENARIO 1: If the system goes towards the Gulf of Mexico, it could potentially mean some more of a threat to Florida or the United States towards the end of next week. Water temperatures are still historically hot in the Caribbean and wind shear is projected to be light, meaning that when the storm is in the Caribbean, it could become a hurricane or possibly even a strong one if it sits over that water long enough.

SCENARIO 2: A weaker storm that will be steered out into the Atlantic, staying off the shore of the East Coast. Climatologically, this is more of a typical pattern we'd see, especially this time of year.

Despite some models backing off development, experts believe conditions remain favorable for the formation of a named storm in the central Caribbean by this weekend or early next week. The strength and path of the system will be crucial in determining its potential impact.

While Florida faces no immediate threat, travelers to the Caribbean are advised to monitor the forecast closely as the system develops.

"If you have a cruise/vacation or interests in Cancun, Cozumel, Jamaica, the Florida Keys, you especially want to watch this forecast closely," said FOX 35 Meteorologist Noah Bergren.

Bergren said this wave could form into a more organized system as early as Sunday or as late as Tuesday.

"From there, will this system become a strong hurricane in the Caribbean? I think it is possible. Does it stay weak? Also, possible. If it did in fact reach the Gulf, that is when things get erratic," Bergren explained. "The steering pattern would be chaotic and an unknown amount of wind shear would impact it. Falling apart in the central Gulf is just as possible as impacting the U.S. somewhere directly at the end of next week/next weekend."