Potential Caribbean system increased in chance of development, NHC says

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Published  November 12, 2024 6:04am EST
FOX 35 Orlando
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Tracking the tropics a.m.: November 12, 2024

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner provides the latest tropics forecast.

ORLANDO, Fla. - The disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea has increased in its chance of development.  According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) 7 a.m. update, the disturbance has increased to a 80% chance of development over the next seven days and a 40% chance of development over the next 48 hours. Even an expected cold front later this week may not be enough to hinder the system’s development.

Favorable conditions in ocean temperatures, wind shear, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) suggest that this system could become a hurricane by late this week or early next. 

In an unusual twist for this time of year, a track into the Gulf of Mexico remains possible. Early data points to this potential pathway, although it is too soon to predict a specific track. 

"A hurricane is very realistic out of this system late this week into next week. Residents across the Caribbean, Florida, and the Bahamas are advised to monitor the system closely," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. 

The system is currently moving west towards the waters off of Belize.

For now, Floridians are encouraged to "watch without worry" but to stay informed as all possibilities remain on the table. 

As we look ahead, a second system may form in a few weeks as it moves slowly westward with more potency, according to the NHC.

Only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida during the month of November, based on 173 years of record keeping.

Many in Central Florida will remember Nicole, a Category 1 storm that impacted Central Florida in 2022. Two Category 2 hurricanes have struck Florida in November – an unnamed storm in 1935 that impacted South Florida, and Hurricane Kate that impacted the Florida Panhandle in 1985. 

When does hurricane season end?

The hurricane season runs between June 1 and November 30, 2024. Rafael was the 17th named storm and 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The next storm names are Sara and Tony.

As a reminder, only four names remain on the primary Atlantic basin list for the 2024 season. If these are exhausted, a reserved 2024 list will be used, starting with Adria. The meteorological community has opted out of the Greek alphabet for supplemental names, citing post-season analysis confusion.

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