Poll: Florida voters weigh Trump-Harris, marijuana, abortion, school board elections in UNF survey
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ORLANDO, Fla. - A recent poll conducted by the University of North Florida's Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by seven percentage points among likely Florida voters.
Of the 774 respondents, 49% indicated they would vote for Trump, while 42% supported Harris, and 4% chose another candidate. Six percent were undecided or refused to answer.
"It’s not a huge surprise to see Trump ahead in his home state of Florida, which he won by three points in 2020," said PORL faculty director and professor of political science Dr. Michael Binder. "With Harris just entering the race, enthusiasm amongst her supporters has livened up what was once thought to be an easy win for Trump in Florida."
When asked who they would vote for if the Presidential election were held today, 49% of respondents said former President Donald Trump, with 42% indicating a vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, and 4% saying they would vote for another candidate.
In the U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Rick Scott leads his top Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, by four points. Results show that 47% of respondents support Scott and 43% back Mucarsel-Powell. Less than one percent indicated they would vote for someone else, while 10% were undecided or refused to answer.
Binder highlighted the close nature of Scott's previous races and the potential for another tight contest in a state that has become more Republican over the past six years.
"What’s really interesting is that Trump has a couple point bigger lead than Rick Scott, who’s only up by four – just inside the margin of error of this poll," Binder noted.
The poll also surveyed voter opinions on three proposed amendments to the Florida Constitution.
Amendment 1, which involves the partisan election of district school board members, received 40% opposition, 37% support, and 23% undecided or refusing to answer. Binder attributed the uncertainty to the amendment's confusing language.
Amendment 3, which proposes the legalization of adult personal use of marijuana, received strong support, with 64% in favor and 31% opposed. Only 5% were undecided or refused to answer. Binder mentioned the potential impact of campaign funding against the amendment on these numbers.
"It’s not too clear yet how much money will be injected into the campaign against this amendment," said Binder. "If the opposing organizations ramp up their campaigns, we may see this number come down, depending how much cash is spent in opposition."
Amendment 4, aiming to limit government interference with abortion, garnered the highest support among the three amendments, with 69% in favor and 23% opposed. Eight percent were undecided or refused to answer. Binder suggested that the recent financial impact statement to the ballot summary might influence voter support as the campaign progresses.
The PORL survey was conducted through telephone and web surveys from July 24 to July 27, 2024. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Read more here (PDF).