Orlando weather: Shower and storm chances higher this weekend

ORLANDO, Fla. - TONIGHT: Scattered storms continuing to pop up East of I-4 and up I-95 before quieting down later on tonight. Main threats are gusty winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning. This is due to the Western Seabreeze pushing storms into east-central Florida this weekend through the afternoon and evening.

REST OF THE WEEKEND: As storms spark up through the late afternoon, outflow boundaries will also be something to watch as they can create just enough lift and pushing warm air upwards to create new thunderstorms. Expect higher rain chances for the Orlando Metro area, theme parks and the Florida East Coast beaches especially on Sunday. Otherwise, it will stay hot and humid. Highs will stay in the low to mid-90s with temperatures feeling like 103-110°F each afternoon. This will stay consistent into next week.
 

This weekend should hopefully help us catch up with some of these totals. Temperatures will still be very hot and humid, with highs holding steady in the mid-90s.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Continuing to watch a tropical wave that as it progresses westwards across the Atlantic. A couple things have changed since the first outlook was posted yesterday. There is now a 30% chance of development in the region of the Northern Caribbean and the Antilles Islands.

The tropical wave that we are watching is still in an environment that is unfavorable for development through July 31st. After July 31st into the first week in August, things will become much more favorable for a tropical system to develop. In the Northern Caribbean and the Antilles Islands area, there is less Saharan Dust, less aggressive wind shear and the very warm ocean temperatures that are also all factors that allow for tropical development.

There are still a lot of things up in the air with this. Some of the burning questions won't really be able to be answered until this tropical wave gets closer through next week. But main questions at the moment are, #1, will this tropical wave stay organized enough to develop once it makes its way into the Northern Caribbean and the Antilles Islands area, and #2, where will this wave track if it does develop.Which brings me to what has changed with the models. If this tropical wave stays north of the islands later next week, then a bit better chance of development exists. If it stays over or south of the islands, it most likely will fizzle out quickly. 

And also one more scenario possible as suggested by the most recent GFS, is the system strengthening into a spinning system, going over the Islands and then fizzling out as it makes its way into the gulf. EURO still remains the same siding with the possibility that this will be a spinning system when it gets into the possible development area that it stays north of the islands. 

This is something to most definitely keep an eye on for areas in Florida, Northern Caribbean and the Antilles Islands, but because this is still so far out and this tropical wave is very disorganized and is in an area that is very hostile. So there is nothing to be worried about or alter any plans over at this time