Orlando weather: Only slight rain chances this weekend, storms expected next week
ORLANDO, Fla. - Flow across Florida will move from east to west, pushing thunderstorms toward the Gulf of Mexico each afternoon. This means minimal rain chances for Central Florida on Saturday, with a slight increase on Sunday.
Tampa Bay will see plenty of storms Friday and Saturday evenings, but Orlando is likely to remain dry. Rain chances will pick up on Sunday and again on Monday, with showers expected in the afternoon and evening.
LOOKING AHEAD: On Saturday, there is a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. The day will be mostly sunny with a high near 88 degrees. Showers are more likely on Saturday night, with a slight chance of thunderstorms before 11 p.m. Skies will become mostly cloudy, with lows around 75 degrees and a 30% chance of rain.
On Sunday, rain chances increase, with a likelihood of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The day will be mostly cloudy with highs near 83 degrees and a 60% chance of precipitation. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday night, with the chance of rain at 60% and temperatures cooling to around 73 degrees.
A period of relatively dry weather is expected over the next two days, but heavy rain could be on the way next week as a system in the Gulf begins to develop. An elongated area of low pressure will pull in moisture from the Gulf and transport it toward Florida, combining with a cold front to bring potentially heavy rain and flooding to parts of the state.
The current forecast suggests South Florida will see the worst of the rain, but the exact track of the cold front is still uncertain. If the front stalls farther north, closer to the I-10 corridor, areas like Orlando could experience higher rain totals, possibly exceeding 8 inches. However, if the front remains south, rain amounts in Central Florida are expected to be more manageable, with totals between 2 and 4 inches.
The strength of the low-pressure system is also a factor. Stronger wind shear from the incoming cold front is likely to prevent the system from developing into a hurricane, though it could become a tropical or subtropical storm. If the system intensifies and tracks into South Florida, heavier rain will likely be confined closer to the storm's center, reducing rain totals for areas farther north. The next name on the list for tropical storms is Milton.
Regardless of its development, heavy rain is expected across much of the state next week, with flooding a concern in some areas. After the storm, cooler, fall-like air will arrive, bringing pleasant weather to Florida by the weekend of October 12-13.
Tracking the Tropics:
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Leslie in the eastern Atlantic.
In the Gulf of Mexico, disorganized storms are forming over the western Gulf, linked to a trough of low pressure. A broad low-pressure area is expected to develop in the southwestern or south-central Gulf this weekend. It may gradually strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane by early to mid-next week, depending on its interaction with a nearby frontal boundary.
Regardless of development, heavy rains could affect parts of Mexico in the next few days and the Florida Peninsula later this weekend and into next week.