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TIMELINE: Forecast improving for Central Florida as South Florida see record rainfall

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Updated  June 12, 2024 6:56am EDT
Weather Forecast
FOX 35 Orlando

Orlando Weather Forecast: June 12 2024

A tropical system moving across the Florida Peninsula has caused flash flooding in South Florida.

ORLANDO, Fla. - Rain chances in Central Florida are trending down over the next few days. Forecasts now predict a 60% chance of rain on Thursday, down from 80%. 

Scattered slow-moving showers, downpours, and thunderstorms remain likely Thursday afternoon, evening, and again on Friday, but to a lesser extent. Consequently, the WX Impact Day alert for Thursday has been lifted.

This weekend, dry air in the mid-atmosphere will reduce daily rain chances to 30%. Expect a mix of clouds and sun with highs in the upper 80s. Next week, a gusty east-to-west flow will develop, bringing daily east winds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph starting Monday. This pattern might bring a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, but these will be infrequent.

In the tropics, two areas are under watch. One system off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend has a low chance of briefly becoming a tropical storm as it moves away from the U.S. mainland. Another system in the Bay of Campeche has a 30% chance of developing over the next week. This system is likely to become a tropical storm and could either drift into Mexico or move toward Texas, with no direct impact on Florida. 

If the Carolina system does not develop, the Gulf system could become Alberto, the season’s first named storm.

"Our FOX Model, among most others, indicates what is over Florida now may have a brief window to develop, or at least attain some tropical characteristics from Friday into Saturday between Bermuda and North Carolina," said FOX 35 Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Eventually, it will become cold-cored fully and merge with that cold front into eastern Canada."

Meanwhile, Florida has experienced another record-setting rain event. On Tuesday, Sarasota saw over 3.5 inches of rain in one hour, the highest amount ever recorded in an hour in the city's history. 

On Wednesday, North Miami and Hollywood areas received over 12 inches of rain, with some areas exceeding 13 inches. Including yesterday's rainfall, totals have reached over 19 inches in North Miami and more than 20 inches along I-75 in southwest Florida. Miami's average rainfall for June is historically 11 inches, meaning Miami-Dade and Broward counties received an entire month's worth of rain in less than 10 hours today.

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