Orlando weather: Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday afternoon, mainly west of I-4

ORLANDO, Fla. - Showers and storms will occur before tapering off overnight. Expect slow-moving activity with isolated flooding, which is possible in some areas.

Tuesday will bring similar weather, with numerous afternoon showers and storms moving westward, unlike Monday's northward direction. 

On Wednesday and Thursday, storms and downpours in the afternoon and evening will shift from southeast to northwest. Overall, it will be a wet week with above-average rain chances (around 70%) each afternoon and evening, continuing through the weekend. No signs of organized severe weather exist, but localized heavy rainfall is possible in areas that see repeated downpours.

Tracking the Tropics

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a tropical wave in the Caribbean currently has a 40% chance of developing. Models have recently reduced the likelihood of long-term development, but the NHC maintains the forecast at 40%. The wave is expected to approach the Yucatán Peninsula by Friday and enter the Bay of Campeche this weekend or Monday. 

Forecast data is mixed beyond that point: about half of the models suggest the wave will dissipate, 25% suggest potential tropical development in the southwestern Gulf, and the remaining data suggests it could become a tropical depression with heavy rain before being absorbed by a cold front, which could bring the remnants to Florida later next week. While long-term development appears less likely, the wave should still be monitored closely.

Another tropical wave in the Atlantic has a 40% chance of development but is not expected to threaten any landmass. Aside from these two systems, no other significant activity is expected in the Atlantic, where conditions remain unexpectedly hostile despite historically high sea surface temperatures.

Our pattern this week will be wet. A southeasterly flow will help usher moisture-rich, tropical air into Central Florida, allowing more people to experience the heavier rainfall.

There are several working theories in the meteorological community, a few of which include:

• Temperatures are too warm in the upper atmosphere (part climate change/part the pattern we are in/part possibly the Hunga Tonga Volcano eruption).
• There is too much wind shear, way more than thought for a developing La Niña.
• Waves have struggled to develop even in zones of otherwise favorable to highly favorable atmospheric conditions.