Invested 97-L now designated in Caribbean

Tropical Update: November 2, 2024

FOX 35 M Meteorologist T.J. Springer updates the Tropics

ORLANDO, Fla. - We now have Subtropical Storm Patty in the Northern Atlantic and is expected to move over the Azores and then head up toward Spain/Portugal early next week. With that, our wave in the Western Caribbean would become Rafael.

It's still at an 80 percent chance of formation with a depression likely forming this weekend. Still no spaghetti modeling but I'd imagine we'd see that sometime in the near future. This broad low is moving into an area of little shear and extreme warmth in the ocean. That'll help it gradually strengthen and organize into a possible tropical storm through the first half of next week.

The steering in the atmosphere continues to push this system into the Gulf and then lift northward from there. The question mark is where does it go from the Central Gulf. it all depends on the strength and placement of the large scale features in the atmosphere.

One thing's for certain though, much less ocean heat content is in the Gulf and this storm will encounter plenty of wind shear as it gets closer to the Gulf Coast. That would really help tear "Rafael" down as it lifts toward the U.S.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1–November 30, 2024.