'Rare' disturbance is tracking toward Florida as potential tropical storm brews in the Gulf: NHC
ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center is keeping a close eye on two systems for possible development this week.
The disturbance (Tropical Wave 91L) positioned in the southwest Gulf of Mexico could become the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC said it has a 70% chance of development over the next seven days.
"Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast," the NHC said in an update Monday.
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If the disturbance were to strengthen into a storm, it would be named Alberto. Current models forecast the system to track into Mexico, bringing flooding rain and winds up to 55 mph at landfall later this week.
Tropical system could track toward Florida
Forecasters are also monitoring a rare area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of Florida and the Bahamas in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner said the low is trying to develop along an old cold front in the western Atlantic. Garner said that could be the seed for a future tropical or subtropical system, set to make a run for Florida late this week.
It has a 30% chance of formation over the next seven days, according to the NHC.
There's also an upper level low atop of that developing tropical system, which Garner said is the opposite of what the systems need to further develop. (They need high pressure aloft.)
The current setup will obstruct any chance of rapid advancement of this system. This will keep the system much weaker than the earlier appeared potential from over the weekend, when the threat first became apparent.
If the area were to develop, such an event would be "extremely rare" for June, said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren. "Historically, only three storms have made landfall from the east in June," he added. "The most recent was Tropical Storm Danny in 2021, which hit South Carolina."
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This unusual weather pattern is due to a massive heat dome over New England, creating an east-to-west flow over the southwest Atlantic Ocean.
Regardless of development, the tropical activity will cause breezy conditions on Thursday and Friday in Central Florida, with a higher chance for rain, potentially rough surf and slightly higher than normal tides.