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New tropical disturbance in Atlantic shows potential for development over Labor Day weekend

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Updated  August 27, 2024 11:59pm EDT
Hurricanes
FOX 35 Orlando

Slow development of tropical wave expected

The tropics remain relatively calm on this last week of August but we are tracking a wave that could develop in the early part of next week.

ORLANDO, Fla. - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring a tropical disturbance for possible development over the Labor Day weekend or early next week. This comes as we are entering the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. 

The Atlantic has been quiet since Hurricane Ernesto dissipated near Atlantic Canada last Tuesday, but now forecasters are keeping their eyes on the region between the Lesser Antilles and Africa, where a disturbance is showing a 20% chance of formation.

"An area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the tropical Atlantic in a few days," the NHC said in its outlook for the potential disturbance. "Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system by this weekend into early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph."

For now, the chance of development is low, but those odds could increase or decrease as computer forecast models continue to sample the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic in the days ahead.

It's too soon to know where this potential disturbance is headed or what the impacts could be.  

Additionally, two other tropical waves are closer to Florida, as seen in the map below – one near the Yucatán Peninsula (No. 1) and another in the Caribbean Sea (No. 2). 

A weather system extending from the Yucatán Channel down to northern Honduras is bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along its path. In the eastern and central Caribbean, moderate to locally strong winds are creating waves between 3 and 5 feet. 

Looking ahead, moderate to locally strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of Hispaniola throughout the week, with similar conditions expected off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia starting Tuesday. 

Tropical waves No. 1 and No. 2 are not expected to impact Florida, but the wave in the central Atlantic should be watched closely in the coming week. If the system organizes enough to become a tropical storm, it will be named Francine.

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