Chances improve for development of disturbance in Caribbean over the next week, NHC says

Development of topical system likely in Caribbean Sea

There’s a rising chance of a new tropical system forming in the Caribbean this week, with favorable conditions for development.

ORLANDO, Fla. - A new disturbance has an improved chance to develop in the western Caribbean Sea later this week.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the disturbance has a 60% chance of development over the next seven days and a 20% chance of development over the next 48 hours. Even an expected cold front later this week may not be enough to hinder the system’s development.

Favorable conditions in ocean temperatures, wind shear, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) suggest that this system could become a hurricane by late this week or early next.

In an unusual twist for this time of year, a track into the Gulf of Mexico remains possible. Early data points to this potential pathway, although it is too soon to predict a specific track.

"A hurricane is very realistic out of this system late this week into next week. Residents across the Caribbean, Florida, and the Bahamas are advised to monitor the system closely," said FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bergren.

Two scenarios are possible with this system. In the first scenario, the system is forced into the Gulf of Mexico and then could make a turn to the northeast.

A second scenario would force the system out into the Atlantic Ocean because of an approaching cold front.

For now, Floridians are encouraged to "watch without worry" but to stay informed as all possibilities remain on the table.

As we look ahead, a second system may form in a few weeks as it moves slowly westward with more potency, according to the NHC.

Only three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida during the month of November, based on 173 years of record keeping.

Many in Central Florida will remember Nicole, a Category 1 storm that impacted Central Florida in 2022. Two Category 2 hurricanes have struck Florida in November – an unnamed storm in 1935 that impacted South Florida, and Hurricane Kate that impacted the Florida Panhandle in 1985.

When does hurricane season end?

The hurricane season runs between June 1 and November 30, 2024. Rafael was the 17th named storm and 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The next storm names are Sara and Tony.

As a reminder, only four names remain on the primary Atlantic basin list for the 2024 season. If these are exhausted, a reserved 2024 list will be used, starting with Adria. The meteorological community has opted out of the Greek alphabet for supplemental names, citing post-season analysis confusion.