New study finds humanity nearing life expectancy limits

Expert discusses CDC report estimating a year drop in US life expectancy

Dr. Richard Wender, chair of Family Medicine and Community Health at Penn Medicine, discussed the CDC report estimating that U.S. life expectancy dropped a full year and what that means.

LOS ANGELES - A new study suggests that humanity may be hitting a wall when it comes to how long we can live. Despite advances in healthcare, genetic research, and the growing number of people hitting 100 years old, the jump in life expectancy has been tapering off.

S. Jay Olshansky, a researcher at the University of Illinois-Chicago and lead author of the study published in Nature Aging, told the Associated Press, the findings are clear: "We have to recognize there's a limit."

He goes on to suggest that it might be time to reconsider some of our long-held beliefs—like when we should retire and how much money we'll actually need to last through our golden years.

Who’s living the longest?

If you thought Americans were leading the way in life expectancy, think again. The study tracked life expectancy from 1990 to 2019 in places known for longevity—think Australia, Japan, and Switzerland. And while the U.S. did make the list (probably because, as Olshansky said, "we live here"), we didn’t crack the top 40 for longest-living populations.

The study found that women still outlive men across the board, but the improvements in life expectancy are slowing down. In the 1990s, life expectancy was improving by about 2 1/2 years per decade. By the 2010s, that number had dropped to just 1 1/2 years. And in the U.S., the improvement is almost negligible.

Why? The U.S. faces a range of issues that cut lives short, from drug overdoses and gun violence to obesity and healthcare inequalities. These problems have made it hard for the U.S. to keep pace with other developed nations in terms of life expectancy.

Why is life expectancy plateauing?

Aging is the big roadblock here, according to the study. While we’ve made some impressive strides with medical technology, the human body can only stretch the lifespan so far. "We’re squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies," Olshansky explained. "And the reason is, aging gets in the way."

Yes, you’re hearing more about people living to 100 these days, but that’s mostly because there are just more people in general. The percentage of people reaching that milestone remains pretty low—fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men will live that long in most countries, experts predict.

What does this mean for the future?

The study highlights a sobering fact: there may be a ceiling for life expectancy. And while it’s possible that some future medical breakthrough could push us beyond that, we’re not there yet.

The growing ranks of centenarians might make it seem like living to 100 is becoming more common, but the study suggests it’ll remain a rare milestone. The U.S., in particular, is facing a "dismal and declining" trend in life expectancy compared to other countries, according to Eileen Crimmins, a gerontology expert at the University of Southern California.

So, while aging gracefully may still be possible, living forever? Not so much.