Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 forecast to become hurricane in Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, now known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, is likely to become Tropical Storm Rafael by Monday and is forecast to become a hurricane later this week, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday night.

As of 10 p.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 was 325 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 505 miles southeast of Grand Cayman with sustained winds of 35 mph, and moving north at 6 mph. It is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday, and could reach hurricane strength by midweek, according to the latest projections.

It is expected to pass by Jamaica late Monday and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the NHC said.  Rafael is the next name on the 2024 Atlantic cyclone list, and would become the 17th named storm of the season. 

Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning. The Cayman Islands are under a hurricane watch.

Is Tropical Storm Rafael headed toward Florida?

According to the National Hurricane Center's forecast track, Rafael is expected to reach hurricane strength by Wednesday morning, as it crosses Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico. Though, it is still too early to know for sure where the system will ultimately go and how strong it will be.

Florida is not within the NHC's forecast zone. It appears the system is expected to stay west of Florida's Gulf coast in the Gulf of Mexico, though it could make landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast – Florida Panhandle, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, even portions of eastern Texas. NHC's cone has it weakening from a hurricane to a tropical storm as it inches closer to the U.S. coastline.

Still too soon to know for sure. That data will get stronger and more confident in the days ahead. 

"Even though Rafael is expected to reach Cuba and perhaps the Keys as a minimal hurricane, the cooler Gulf waters characteristic of this time of year, along with higher wind shear, should weaken it to a tropical storm by the time it reaches our latitude," said Garner.

Florida will still feel impacts

FOX 35 meteorologist Brooks Garner said even though the system is likely to stay off of Florida's western coast, Central Florida would likely see some impacts.

The timeline is Wednesday and Thursday, as of the latest projections. Heavy rainfall, between 2"-5", leading to ponding or flooding in some areas is possible, as well as a few isolated tornadoes.

"Flooding presents the most significant threat to our region, with a medium risk level. We anticipate widespread rainfall between 2 and 6 inches along this trajectory, with higher totals expected north of Interstate 4," said Garner.

"Many homes in these counties were previously flooded by Milton and are still grappling with saturated ground, increasing the likelihood of flooding in vulnerable areas. A few isolated tornadoes are possible on Wednesday. Additionally, large tree limbs, already weakened by Milton, could succumb to gusts ranging from 35 to 50 mph, posing further hazards."

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30, 2024.

So far this year, we've had 16 named storms, and if Rafael forms, it would mark the 17th named storm of the 2024 season.

Of the 16, there have been five tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. There have been three landfalling hurricanes in Florida: Debby, Helene, and Milton.

Two disturbances east of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18

Two disturbances have popped up east of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, and nearly on top of each other.

Disturbance 1 is in the southwestern Atlantic. The NHC said an area of disturbed weather could develop later this week. Some subtropical or tropical development is possible as it is expected to move generally over the southwestern Atlantic. As of Sunday night, it has a low 20% chance of development over the next week. 

Disturbance 2 is near the southeastern Bahamas. This area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to be absorbed by Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 by late Monday, the NHC said.