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Tropics update: Invest 97L in Caribbean, likely to be depression
A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center, has a likely chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next dew days, and could potentially become a tropical storm later on.
A disturbance in the Caribbean Sea, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center, has a likely chance of developing into at least a tropical depression over the next dew days, and could potentially become a tropical storm later on.
Naming it an "Invest," which simply means an area of interest, allows the National Hurricane Center and meteorologists to run computer models to potentially see where the system could go and at what strength, if it ultimately forms.
As of Saturday, the disturbance was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea. It's moving north-westward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Could it become Tropical Storm Rafael?
According to FOX 35's Brooks Garner, the system has a high likelihood of becoming Tropical Storm Rafael. If you were expecting Patty to be the next storm name, a disturbance way out in the east Atlantic took that name Saturday morning - Subtropical Patty.
It is still too soon to forecast exactly where this potential system will go, but it is a system that will continue to be watched and tracked.
Most computer models have confidence that the system will ultimately move near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and across Cuba. However, once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, near Florida Key, confidence weakens.
Meteorologist Brooks Garner said Tropical Storm Rafael will likely form over Cuba and could potentially reach hurricane strength, but again, it is too soon to know for certain.
Most models have the system staying west of Florida's coast. Again, too soon to know for sure.
What impacts could we see in Orlando?
The system's center will likely stay 200 miles west of Florida out in the Gulf of Mexico. However, it will feel like summer midweek with high humidity, strong winds, and scattered tropical downpours.
Between 2-5 inches of rain is possible, which could lead to ponding in already saturated yards. There is also a chance of an isolated tornado.
Winds gusts next week could be 30-45 mph, though likely on the lower end.
What we do not know
The exact track of this sytem is uncertain. We will be watching it over the next several days.
There is also a second disturbance east of this one that may move towards the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC said that the secondary system would likely be absorbed by the larger one discussed above, though still unknown.
No computer models currently forecast a hurricane towards Central Florida, but we will continue to watch. Even if it forms off the west coast, we could still feel some impacts from it.
Water temperatures in the ocean and atmospheric conditions do not support a hurricane once the system clears Cuba and the Florida Keys, which is typical for November, Garner said.
When does hurricane season end?
Hurricane season runs June 1 - November 30, 2024.
So far this year, we've had 16 named storms, and if Rafael forms, it would mark the 17th named storm of the 2024 season.
Of the 16, there have been five tropical storms and 10 hurricanes. There have been three landfalling hurricanes in Florida: Debby, Helene, and Milton.