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Invest 95L could become tropical storm this weekend, NHC says: Will it impact Florida?

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Updated  June 27, 2024 9:18pm EDT
FOX 35 Orlando Tropical Weather Forecast
FOX 35 Orlando

NHC tracking 2 waves with development potential

The National Hurricane Center is watching Invest 95L in the Atlantic Ocean, which could become our next named storm of the season. The NHC is also tracking Invest 94L, located over the west-central Caribbean Sea.

ORLANDO, Fla. - The FOX 35 Storm Team is monitoring the tropics, and two waves are showing signs of potential development.

Invest 95L, in the Atlantic Ocean, has a 90% chance of developing over the next several days, likely becoming a tropical storm as early as Saturday. Residents in the Windward Islands, particularly from St. Lucia and points south, should stay alert as a tropical storm or low-end hurricane could impact the region by Monday of next week.

Water temperatures in the southern Atlantic are at historical highs, comparable to average temperatures typically seen at the end of August.

The path of the system after passing the Windward Islands remains uncertain. 

Typically, early July is not conducive to hurricanes in this part of the Caribbean. However, this year presents a small window of unusually favorable conditions that could sustain a tropical storm or low-end hurricane in the Caribbean next week. The track and longevity of the system are still unknown.

Any direct impact on Florida towards the end of next week appears extremely unlikely. However, interests in the Caribbean, Mexico, the Gulf Coast, and the southeastern United States should closely monitor this system as we approach the Fourth of July.

Saharan dust behind and ahead of the system could also weaken it, while the overall steering flow in the Atlantic is expected to push it westward into the Caribbean.

Additionally, another wave behind this system could potentially develop into a tropical storm, which would be named "Chris" if it formed after "Beryl."

Will Invest 95L impact Florida?

"Right now, any direct impact to the state of Florida appears extremely unlikely towards the end of next week," FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Noah Bregren said. "Any interest in the Caribbean, Mexico, the Gulf coast, and the southeast United States should keep closed tabs on this system, heading into the Fourth of July."

Tracking Invest 94L

The NHC is also tracking Invest 94L, located over the west-central Caribbean Sea.

"Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some gradual development later this week over the western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend," the NHC said.

It has a low chance – 30% – for development over the next seven days.