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Tracking tropical disturbance off Yucatan
A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan Peninsula is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center said the system is likely to become a tropical depression.
ORLANDO, Fla. - The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway and forecasters are already tracking activity in the tropics.
A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan Peninsula is interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and producing a broad region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center said the system is likely to become a tropical depression, possibly a tropical storm, by the weekend as it moves northeastward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and crosses the Florida Peninsula.
"Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday."
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FOX 35 Storm Team: Tracking the Tropics
The FOX 35 Storm Team covers what you need to know about how to be prepared for a hurricane. We also visit with NOAA Hurricane Hunters to learn more about how these experts track the direction and strength of a tropical system.
As of Wednesday morning, chances of development are at 80-percent over the next 5 days.
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If the system does develop into a tropical storm, it would be named Alex, the first named storm of the season.
FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Allison Gargaro said the Euro model shows the track of the system making its way across the Florida Peninsula nearing our viewing area on Saturday. The GFS model keeps our viewing area mainly dry, but the FOX 35 Storm Team is monitoring the system.
"If we do see that more northerly track, it looks like the day for the heaviest rain is Saturday," Gargaro said.
LINK: Track the tropics on the FOX 35 Orlando Hurricane Center
The second system being monitored is a weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity, according to the NHC.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts another above-average Atlantic hurricane season for the 2022 season, marking the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
This season, NOAA anticipates between 14 and 21 named storms, and between 6-10 of those becoming hurricanes. Of those 10, NOAA said three to six could become major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5).
The list of names you may hear from our FOX 35 Storm Team meteorologists this year are:
- Alex
- Bonnie
- Colin
- Danielle
- Earl
- Fiona
- Gaston
- Hermine
- Ian
- Julia
- Karl
- Lisa
- Martin
- Nicole
- Owen
- Paula
- Richard
- Shary
- Tobias
- Virginie
- Walter
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.