Hurricane Rafael churns in the Gulf, supposed to gradually weaken, no threat to Florida: NHC

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Orlando afternoon forecast: November 8, 2024

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Jessica Dobson provides the latest forecast for Central Florida.

Powerful Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba as a major hurricane on Wednesday and has now entered the Gulf of Mexico, raising questions about its next destination.

As of late Thursday evening, Rafael remains a Category 2 hurricane—the first November Category 2 storm in the Gulf since Hurricane Ida in 2009. Cuba and parts of the western Caribbean were hit hardest, enduring damaging hurricane-force winds, heavy flooding, and a life-threatening storm surge.

The hurricane will continue moving into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where hostile upper-level winds and cooler ocean temperatures are expected to weaken it to a tropical storm. Rafael is projected to make landfall near the Bay of Campeche along Mexico’s coastline.

Is Hurricane Rafael headed for Florida?  

No, Hurricane Rafael is not expected to impact Florida directly. It's predicted to remain more than 350 miles west of Florida’s Gulf coast, avoiding a landfall or direct hit.

However, Central Florida will still feel some effects from the hurricane, as its outer bands bring torrential downpours and gusty winds to the area. The FOX 35 Storm Team also warns there is a possibility of a brief tornado.

Elsewhere in the tropics

Another area of concern is emerging in the Caribbean, with the potential for tropical development by mid- to late next week. 

When does hurricane season end?

The hurricane season runs between  June 1 and November 30, 2024.

Rafael is the 17th named storm and 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

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