Hurricane Milton tracker: 'Extremely dangerous' Cat. 4 storm to grow in size on way to Florida

By and Brooks Garner
Updated  October 8, 2024 11:22am EDT
FOX 35 Orlando

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ORLANDO, Fl - Hurricane Milton remains an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm in the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to stay a major hurricane before making landfall over Florida.

"Today (Tuesday) is the last full day for Florida residents to get their families and homes ready and evacuate if told to do so by local officials," the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. advisory.

As of 11 a.m., Hurricane Milton was 520 miles away from Tampa, Florida, with sustained winds of 150 mph, slightly stronger than its previous update. It is moving east-northeast at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure is 929 mb.

Hurricane Milton latest updates:

Where is Hurricane Milton right now? Here is the latest NHC track.

What category storm is Hurricane Milton right now?

In the 11 a.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Milton had sustained winds of 150 mph, making it a strong Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Milton has fluctuated in intensity over the last 48 hours as wind speeds have decreased and increased. It was a strong Category 5 storm on Monday with wind speeds of 175 mph at one point.

What is the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale?

Hurricanes are given a category – rated – based on their sustained wind speeds, using Category 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5. A major hurricane is a Category 3, 4, or 5 storm. The Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale only takes into account wind speeds. It does not account for storm surge, flooding, torrential rain, etc.

  • Category 1: 74-95 mph sustained winds (very dangerous winds will produce some damage)
  • Category 2: 96-110 mph sustained winds (extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage)
  • Category 3: 111-129 mph sustained winds (devastating damage will occur)
  • Category 4: 120 to 156 mph sustained winds (catastrophic damage will occur)
  • Category 5: 157 mph sustained winds (Catastrophic damage will occur)'

How will Milton impact Central Florida?

The worst damage we can expect to see in Central Florida will not be coming from the winds as many would expect but from flooding rains. Many communities along and north of the center of the storm will see about 8–15 inches of rain. 

When will Orlando and Central Florida feel the effects of Hurricane Milton? 

Ahead of Milton, Florida will see increasing periods of rainfall and increasing winds as tropical storm-force winds and the hurricane's outer bands begin to spread across the state.

Those impacts will get worse as Milton gets closer to the coast.

Hurricane Milton Spaghetti Models

Here is the latest spaghetti models from Hurricane Milton. 
Here is the latest spaghetti models from Hurricane Milton. 

FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner provided a potential timeline of how and when Hurricane Milton will make landfall and move across the state:

WED 12p.m.-7p.m. | Hurricane Milton approaches Tampa Bay.

  • Orlando will only have winds of 25-40mph in gusts inside of downpours.
  • Scattered tornadoes will be possible during this lead-up time.

WED 7p.m.-10p.m. | Hurricane Milton makes landfall Wednesday evening in the Tampa Bay causing storm surge from there to Ft Myers.

  • Orlando will only have winds of 25-50mph in gusts through the evening. Some may remark on how calm it is in Orlando despite a hurricane landfall in Tampa Bay.
  • Isolated tornadoes though inside a few lone storm cells racing northward.

Thursday 12a.m.-3a.m. | The bigger wind finally arrives here

  • A few 60-75 mph gusts are possible (especially in open areas like airports.)
  • Isolated tornadoes

Thursday 3a.m.-7a.m. | Center of system crossing Orlando with flooding rain along and north of I-4

  • Tornado threat ends
  • Winds calm a bit...
  • Flooding rain is likely to have a wider-spread impact on our DMA than the overall wind impact.
  • Flash Flood Emergencies could be issued
  • Routine 55mph gusts remain... like in a severe thunderstorm

Thursday 8a.m.-12p.m. | Heavy rain is over, but the worst hurricane wind arrives

  • As the system emerges into the Atlantic, we'll catch northern gusts to 80-85mph on the backside of it, in Seminole, Flagler, Volusia Counties... 65-80 mph in Brevard.
  • Storm surge to develop on the Atlantic coast of 2–4 feet... At times of high tide, coastal flooding and erosion.

Thursday 12p.m.-5p.m. | System moves away, conditions calming

  • Still gusty and breezy, we'll see 35-45mph gusts ... On the beaches, we may see gusts to 60mph until nightfall.
  • The Atlantic storm surge continues but subsides after 4pm.

Hurricane Milton tracker: Cone, spaghetti models, path, maps

Tropical storm and hurricane prep

According to Ready. Gov, here are some of the essentials to include in your emergency kit:

  • Food and water to last several days (one gallon per person per day; non-perishable foods to last for several days)
  • NOAA Weather Radio (battery-powered or crank)
  • Flashlight, additional batteries
  • First aid kit, critical medications to last several days
  • Cellphone, chargers, and fully-charged battery packs
  • Cash
  • Important documents (insurance, medical cards; copies of birth certificates, social security cards; pet vaccination, ownership records)
  • Important phone numbers (family, emergency contacts, emergency county contacts)
  • Weather-resistant clothing (jackets, hats, umbrellas, boots, etc.)

What is my Florida evacuation zone? Here's how to find it.

If you live in a low-lying area that's prone to flooding, in a mobile home, or an unsafe structure, those areas may be ordered to evacuate during a hurricane, either part of a voluntary evacuation or a mandatory evacuation.

Here is how to find out if you live in an evacuation zone, and what your zone is:

  • Visit https://www.floridadisaster.org/knowyourzone/ and click the "Know Your Zone" link.
  • Type in your address and see if it is located within a colored evacuation zone (these are flood zones)
  • Zone A is typically the most vulnerable, though there are 21 different zone designations among various counties in Florida