Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico to impact Florida: Here's what to expect

Orlando Weather Florida: May 31, 2023

FOX 35 meteorologist Brooks Garner has a look at the weather forecast for Orlando and Central Florida.

The National Hurricane Center said a system of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico has a low chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical system, but that it is expected to impact Florida.

According to the NHC, the system will meander across the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next several days but has a low chance of becoming a tropical system – 20% over the next 48 hours, and 20% over the next seven days (this year, the NHC went from a 5-day outlook to a 7-day outlook.)

It is then expected to move across the state of Florida this weekend bringing with it heavy rain and gusty winds before moving into the Atlantic Ocean.

What weather could Florida see?

The latest forecast models show that wind gusts could be anywhere between 10 and 20 mph and that parts of Central Florida could see nearly three inches of rain in spots. Higher totals could be in West and South Florida.

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It comes days before the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season is set to begin, which runs June 1 to November 30.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its prediction for the 2023 season. NOAA said it expected a near-normal 2023 with 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5-9 could become hurricanes. One to four of those could then become major hurricanes, according to its prediction.

CSU releases predictions for 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

The hurricane experts at Colorado State University expect tropical cyclone activity to be slightly below average in the Atlantic basin during the 2023 hurricane season. FOX 35 Chief Meteorologist Jayme King breaks down what this could mean for Florida.

The numbers are generally in line with Colorado State University's predictions for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which included 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. CSU also predicted a slightly below-average hurricane season.

Why the differences? Forecasting entities are wrestling to understand the impacts of two major influences of seasonal hurricane activity. There will be a tug of war between El Nino, which will increase trade winds and could tear apart developing systems before they form, reducing our count -- and a much warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures which could super-charge any system which do successfully form.

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Despite the season not starting until June 1, the National Hurricane Center said the first tropical storm of the season – a subtropical storm – formed in the Atlantic basin in January 2023. NHC made that announcement in May after reviewing data from January.

While that system will be marked as the first cyclone of the 2023 season, it will not take the first name in this year's storm list. That means that if/when the next system becomes a tropical storm, it will take the name Arlene, the first name in this year's lineup.